What If We Run Out of Water?

Climate change has focused concern on land and sky as rising temperatures intensify hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts. But underfoot and out of view, another crisis is brewing.

Many of the aquifers (underground rock formations that hold water) that supply 90 percent of the nation’s water systems are being severely depleted.

The New York Times conducted a months-long examination of groundwater depletion, interviewing more than 100 experts, traveling the country, and creating a comprehensive database using millions of readings from monitoring sites. The investigation reveals how groundwater is being exhausted in much of the country. Huge industrial farms and sprawling cities are draining aquifers that could take centuries or millennia to replenish themselves—if they recover at all.

Climate change has focused concern on land and sky. Rising temperatures intensify hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts. But underfoot and out of view, another crisis is brewing.

Underground rock formations that hold water are called aquifers. The aquifers that supply 90 percent of the nation’s water systems are being severely depleted.

The New York Times conducted a months-long examination of groundwater depletion. They interviewed more than 100 experts and traveled the country. They created a comprehensive database using millions of readings from monitoring sites. The investigation reveals how groundwater is being exhausted in much of the country. Huge industrial farms and sprawling cities are draining aquifers. It could take centuries or millennia for them to refill. They might not recover at all.

States and communities are already paying the price.

Groundwater loss is hurting agricultural states like Kansas, where the major aquifer beneath 2.6 million acres of land can no longer support industrial-scale farming. Corn yields have plummeted. If that decline were to spread, it could threaten America’s status as a food superpower.

Around Phoenix, Arizona, which is one of the nation’s fastest growing cities, the crisis is severe enough that the state has said there’s not enough groundwater to build new houses that rely on aquifers.

In other areas, including parts of Utah, California, and Texas, so much water is being pumped up that it’s causing roads to buckle, foundations to crack, and fissures to open in the earth. And around the country, rivers that relied on groundwater have become streams or trickles or memories.

“There is no way to get that back,” says Don Cline, the associate director for water resources at the United States Geological Survey, of disappearing groundwater. “There’s almost no way to convey how important it is.”

States and communities are already paying the price.

Groundwater loss is hurting agricultural states like Kansas. The major aquifer beneath 2.6 million acres of land in Kansas can no longer support industrial-scale farming. Corn yields have plummeted. If that decline were to spread, it could threaten America’s status as a food superpower.

Phoenix, Arizona, is one of the nation’s fastest growing cities. The state has said there’s not enough groundwater to build new houses that rely on aquifers.

In other areas, including parts of Utah, California, and Texas, so much water is being pumped up that it’s causing roads to buckle, foundations to crack, and fissures to open in the earth. And around the country, rivers that relied on groundwater have become streams or trickles or memories.

“There is no way to get that back,” says Don Cline, the associate director for water resources at the United States Geological Survey, of disappearing groundwater. “There’s almost no way to convey how important it is.”

One of the biggest obstacles is that the depletion of this unseen yet essential natural resource is barely regulated. The federal government plays almost no role, and individual states have implemented a dizzying array of often weak rules.

This has helped enable and reinforce practices that have drained aquifers, such as growing water-intensive crops like alfalfa or cotton in dry areas and overreliance on groundwater in fast-growing urban areas.

Oklahoma is working to determine how much water remains in its aquifers, information that state lawmakers could use to set limits on pumping. But Christopher Neel, head of water rights for the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, says people might not welcome the government telling them that their land is running out of groundwater.

“If we start showing that kind of data, that kind of goes into your property values,” Neel says. “If we show an area may be depleted in, let’s say, two years, well, if someone tries to sell that property, they’re not going to be able to.”

Climate change is amplifying the problem. As rising temperatures shrink rivers and the snowpack that feeds them in much of the country, farmers and towns have an incentive to pump more groundwater to make up the difference. And a warmer world also causes more surface water to evaporate, leaving less to seep through the ground to replenish overstressed aquifers.

Even in places experiencing more violent rainstorms because of climate change, the heavier rainfall only helps so much: Much of the water from extreme downpours races away quickly to the ocean, before it can sit and soak into the aquifer below.

“From an objective standpoint, this is a crisis,” says Warigia Bowman, a law professor and water expert at the University of Tulsa. “There will be parts of the U.S. that run out of drinking water.”

One of the biggest obstacles is that the depletion of this unseen yet essential natural resource is barely regulated. The federal government plays almost no role. Individual states have implemented a dizzying array of often weak rules.

This has helped enable and reinforce practices that have drained aquifers. These practices include growing water-intensive crops like alfalfa or cotton in dry areas and an overreliance on groundwater in fast-growing urban areas.

Oklahoma is working to determine how much water remains in its aquifers. State lawmakers could use the information to set limits on pumping. Christopher Neel is head of water rights for the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. He says people might not welcome the government telling them that their land is running out of groundwater.

“If we start showing that kind of data, that kind of goes into your property values,” Neel says. “If we show an area may be depleted in, let’s say, two years, well, if someone tries to sell that property, they’re not going to be able to.”

Climate change is amplifying the problem. Rising temperatures shrink rivers and the snowpack that feeds rivers in much of the country. So farmers and towns pump more groundwater to make up the difference. And a warmer world also causes more surface water to evaporate. This leaves less to seep through the ground to replenish overstressed aquifers.

Even in places experiencing more violent rainstorms because of climate change, the heavier rainfall only helps so much. Much of the water from extreme downpours races away quickly to the ocean before it can sit and soak into the aquifer below.

“From an objective standpoint, this is a crisis,” says Warigia Bowman, a law professor and water expert at the University of Tulsa. “There will be parts of the U.S. that run out of drinking water.”

The most visible symbol of America’s agricultural bounty is the center pivot irrigation system, a metal contraption on wheels that’s attached to a pump and revolves around a central point. A single arm, mounted with sprinklers, can be as long as half a mile, dispersing hundreds of gallons per minute from a well, 24 hours a day, for weeks or even months on end.

Across much of the High Plains, the landscape is dominated by these pivots. But a visitor to Wichita County, in western Kansas, will see fewer of them. The reason: The wells have begun to go dry (see map, below).

Irrigation can more than double the amount of corn grown per acre. As farms in the area use up the groundwater, corn yields have declined. The region offers a glimpse into the future of America’s farming industry if groundwater keeps getting used up, experts say.

“We overpumped it,” says Farrin Watt, who has been farming in Wichita County for 23 years. “We didn’t know it was going to run out.”

American agriculture didn’t always rely on pulling huge volumes of water out of the ground. Until the middle of the 20th century, farmers relied mostly on rainfall or river water. Smaller wells were mainly just supplements.

But advances in pump technology after World War II created an American agricultural powerhouse, turning the West and the High Plains into a bounty of corn, alfalfa, and other crops, delivering yields that surface water alone couldn’t support.

The most visible symbol of America’s agricultural bounty is the center pivot irrigation system. It is a metal contraption on wheels that’s attached to a pump and revolves around a central point.

A single arm, mounted with sprinklers, can be as long as half a mile. It disperses hundreds of gallons per minute from a well, 24 hours a day,
for weeks or even months on end.

Across much of the High Plains, the landscape is dominated by these pivots. But a visitor to Wichita County, in western Kansas, will see fewer of them. This is because the wells have begun to go dry (see map, below).

Irrigation can more than double the amount of corn grown per acre. As farms in the area use up the groundwater, corn yields have declined. The region offers a glimpse into the future of America’s farming industry if groundwater keeps getting used up, experts say.

“We overpumped it,” says Farrin Watt, who has been farming in Wichita County for 23 years. “We didn’t know it was going to run out.”

American agriculture didn’t always rely on pulling huge volumes of water out of the ground. Until the middle of the 20th century, farmers relied mostly on rainfall or river water. Smaller wells were mainly just supplements.

But advances in pump technology after World War II created an American agricultural powerhouse. It turned the West and the High Plains into a bounty of corn, alfalfa, and other crops. It delivered yields that surface water alone couldn’t support.

Last year, the U.S. produced 39 percent of global exports of sorghum (a grain used primarily for animal feed), 32 percent of soybean exports, and 23 percent of corn exports, federal data show. America also exported more cotton than any other nation.

That success has relied on pumping up more water than nature could put back.

As farmers have run out of water, they’ve switched to relying on rain alone. That change is reflected in recent corn yields. Last year, corn growers nationwide produced an average of 173 bushels per acre. But for Wichita County, the yield was 70.6 bushels, the lowest in more than six decades.

Kansas has no mechanism in place to stop its groundwater decline. And it’s not just Kansas that’s rapidly depleting its aquifers.

Last year, the U.S. produced 39 percent of global exports of sorghum (a grain used primarily for animal feed), 32 percent of soybean exports, and 23 percent of corn exports, federal data show. America also exported more cotton than any other nation.

That success has relied on pumping up more water than nature could put back.

As farmers have run out of water, they’ve switched to relying on rain alone. That change is reflected in recent corn yields. Last year, corn growers nationwide produced an average of 173 bushels per acre. But for Wichita County, the yield was 70.6 bushels. That is the lowest in more than six decades.

Kansas has no mechanism in place to stop its groundwater decline. And it’s not just Kansas that’s rapidly depleting its aquifers.

In Arkansas, one of the country’s biggest users of groundwater, more than twice as much water is being pumped annually from the main agricultural aquifer as rainfall and other sources put back in, according to state data. In some places, the aquifer has fallen to less than 10 percent of capacity, the state warned this year. Arkansas produces roughly half the nation’s rice, a water-intensive crop.

In California, an agricultural giant and a major groundwater user, the aquifers in at least 76 basins last year were being pumped out faster than they could be replenished by precipitation. Unfortunately, this year’s unusually wet winter in California, which led to widespread flooding, did only so much to refill those aquifers. That’s because much of the torrent surged through rivers and into the ocean.

Arkansas is one of the country’s biggest users of groundwater. Twice as much water is being pumped annually from the main agricultural aquifer as rainfall and other sources put back in, according to state data. In some places, the aquifer has fallen to less than 10 percent of capacity. Arkansas produces roughly half the nation’s rice, a water-intensive crop.

In California, an agricultural giant and a major groundwater user, the aquifers in at least 76 basins last year were being pumped out faster than they could be replenished by precipitation.

Unfortunately, this year’s unusually wet winter in California, which led to widespread flooding, did only so much to refill those aquifers. Much of that water surged through rivers and into the ocean.

In Colorado, farming, residential development, and reduced precipitation have increasingly strained the state’s groundwater.

In Maryland, almost three-quarters of monitoring wells have seen their water levels drop over the past 40 years, some by more than 100 feet. Charles County, which contains fast-growing suburbs of Washington, D.C., has used most of its groundwater for homes and agriculture. And it isn’t coming back anytime soon.

“Most of the water we’re pulling out of the ground is thousands of years old,” says Jason Groth, the county’s deputy director of planning and growth management. “It’s not like it rains on Monday, and by Saturday it’s in the aquifer.”

If nothing is done to change usage patterns, many communities around the U.S. could run out of drinking water. And new developments will have to be put on hold.

In Colorado, farming, residential development, and reduced precipitation have increasingly strained the state’s groundwater.

In Maryland, almost three-quarters of monitoring wells have seen their water levels drop over the past 40 years. Some have dropped by more than 100 feet. Charles County, which contains fast-growing suburbs of Washington, D.C., has used most of its groundwater for homes and agriculture. And it isn’t coming back anytime soon.

“Most of the water we’re pulling out of the ground is thousands of years old,” says Jason Groth, the county’s deputy director of planning and growth management. “It’s not like it rains on Monday, and by Saturday it’s in the aquifer.”

If nothing is done to change usage patterns, many communities around the U.S. could run out of drinking water. New developments will have to be put on hold.

A little more than one-third of America’s total volume of drinking water comes from groundwater, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey. But small and rural communities are disproportionately dependent on wells, which typically cost less than treating and transporting water from rivers and lakes. Of the nation’s 143,070 water systems, 128,362 rely primarily on groundwater, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Arizona said in June that it would stop granting permission to build houses in the Phoenix area because there isn’t enough water for the homes that have already been approved. Arizona has seen an explosion of wells, and they’ve gotten much deeper as the water level drops.

Craig and Lori Paup were forced to move from their house in the Sulphur Springs Valley of Arizona after their well went dry in 2015. The groundwater had dropped so much that their 300-foot-deep well could no longer reach it. Many of their neighbors faced the same problem.

In Minnesota, a drought during the summer of 2021 prompted farmers to crank up their usage of powerful irrigation wells to drench their fields in water. That caused stream and lake levels to drop and many people’s wells to go dry.

In Red Lake County, Minnesota, Allan Armstrong went without drinking water at his house for a month in 2021, but he was more concerned about the situation at his parents’ house nearby, where his father was receiving hospice care.

“We need water now!” Armstrong wrote to state officials.

The federal government sets rules on groundwater, but not its overuse or depletion, although experts say Congress has the constitutional authority to do so. Overall, federal responsibility for water is scattered among a half-dozen different agencies.

America’s approach to regulating water is “a total mess,” says Upmanu Lall, director of the Columbia Water Center at Columbia University, in New York. Any effort to impose federal oversight would very likely face opposition from agricultural groups.

A little more than one-third of America’s total volume of drinking water comes from groundwater. This is according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey. But small and rural communities are disproportionately dependent on wells. Wells typically cost less than treating and transporting water from rivers and lakes. Of the nation’s 143,070 water systems, 128,362 rely primarily on groundwater, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Arizona said in June that it would stop granting permission to build houses in the Phoenix area. There isn’t enough water for the homes that have already been approved. Arizona has seen an explosion of wells. These wells have gotten much deeper as the water level drops.

Craig and Lori Paup were forced to move from their house in the Sulphur Springs Valley of Arizona after their well went dry in 2015.

The groundwater had dropped so much that their 300-foot-deep well could no longer reach it. Many of their neighbors faced the same problem.

In Minnesota, a drought during the summer of 2021 prompted farmers to crank up their usage of powerful irrigation wells to drench their fields
in water. It caused stream and lake levels to drop. Then many people’s wells went dry.

In Red Lake County, Minnesota, Allan Armstrong went without drinking water at his house for a month in 2021. He was more concerned about the situation at his parents’ house nearby, where his father was receiving hospice care.

“We need water now!” Armstrong wrote to state officials.

The federal government sets rules on groundwater, but not its overuse or depletion. Experts say Congress has the constitutional authority to do so. Overall, federal responsibility for water is scattered among a half-dozen different agencies.

America’s approach to regulating water is “a total mess,” says Upmanu Lall, director of the Columbia Water Center at Columbia University, in New York. Any effort to impose federal oversight would very likely face opposition from agricultural groups.

The effects of the nation’s dwindling supplies of groundwater are visible in another way: The ground itself is breaking apart.

Arizona has 169 miles of mapped earth fissures, according to the Arizona Geological Survey. In the Houston area, overpumping of groundwater, along with oil extraction, has caused some land to sink by more than 10 feet over the course of decades, according to local officials. In Florida, overpumping sometimes causes sinkholes.

Pumping water can cause the earth above an aquifer to slump, collapsing the space left behind by the water that was removed. Once that space is lost, it can no longer hold water. That process, called subsidence, has affected more than 47,000 square miles of U.S. land and waterways, and more than 80 percent of it is the result of groundwater use, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

As the land sinks, home foundations, sewer pipes, and other structures are often damaged. But among the most dramatic consequences of subsidence is a fissure. As softer ground slumps, sometimes an adjacent patch of ground stays put. The resulting movement shears the earth apart.

The effects of the nation’s dwindling supplies of groundwater are visible in another way. The ground itself is breaking apart.

Arizona has 169 miles of mapped earth fissures, according to the Arizona Geological Survey. In the Houston area, overpumping of groundwater and oil extraction, has caused some land to sink by more than 10 feet over the course of decades. This is according to local officials. In Florida, overpumping sometimes causes sinkholes.

Pumping water can cause the earth above an aquifer to slump. It collapses in the space left behind by the water that was removed. Once that space is lost, it can no longer hold water. That process is called subsidence. It has affected more than 47,000 square miles of U.S. land and waterways, and more than 80 percent of it is the result of groundwater use, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

As the land sinks, home foundations, sewer pipes, and other structures are often damaged. But among the most dramatic consequences of subsidence is a fissure. As softer ground slumps, sometimes an adjacent patch of ground stays put. The resulting movement splits the earth apart.

In Enoch, Utah, an 800-home housing development had to be abandoned after a fissure opened up in a road. A fissure has since been detected in another neighborhood nearby, where people already live.

“We’re sucking water out, and it’s compressing the ground,” says Rob Dotson, Enoch’s city manager.

Once fissures happen, they can’t easily be filled in or closed. Instead, they tend to get wider and longer.

Yet despite knowing the consequences, Enoch has been unable to stop extracting its groundwater, a decision to keep pumping that is being repeated nationwide in cities and on farmland. After all, there are crops to sustain and communities like Enoch that keep growing.

“People are coming and coming and coming,” Dotson says. And those people need water.

In Enoch, Utah, an 800-home housing development had to be abandoned after a fissure opened up in a road. A fissure has since been detected in another neighborhood nearby. People already live in that neighborhood.

“We’re sucking water out, and it’s compressing the ground,” says Rob Dotson, Enoch’s city manager.

Once fissures happen, they can’t easily be filled in or closed. Instead, they tend to get wider and longer.

Yet despite knowing the consequences, Enoch has been unable to stop extracting its groundwater. A decision was made to keep pumping, and that is being repeated nationwide in cities and on farmland. After all, there are crops to sustain and communities like Enoch that keep growing.

“People are coming and coming and coming,” Dotson says. And those people need water.

The authors are reporters and editors at The New York Times.

The authors are reporters and editors at The New York Times.