Candy Bar Crisis

For more than 40 years, Magne Akoua has tended his cacao farm in Côte d’Ivoire, a country in western Africa. It’s thankless work. Cacao—the plant with beans that are turned into cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate—is one of the hardest and least profitable crops to grow.

“We have to check on our fruit daily,” Akoua told news organization Al Jazeera earlier this year. “Every three months, it becomes ripe and we can harvest it. But harvest hasn’t been good at all lately.”

The neighboring nations of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana produce nearly 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, but many of the farmers there can’t afford to buy a chocolate bar. And as extreme weather and other conditions in those countries have devastated recent harvests, small, family-run farms are having to turn to other crops to survive.

That’s bad news not just for Akoua and his fellow farmers. It’s also bad news for the rest of the world, as it means the global cocoa supply is shrinking.

Consumers have felt the financial effects. With less cocoa available, the ingredient has gotten more expensive. Global cocoa prices hit a new high this year (see graph, below). That means many chocolate products—ranging from decadent cakes to rich ice cream—cost more now too.

For more than 40 years, Magne Akoua has worked at his cacao farm in Côte d’Ivoire, a country in western Africa. It’s hard work. Cacao is the plant whose beans are turned into cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate. It is one of the hardest and least profitable crops to grow.

“We have to check on our fruit daily,” Akoua told news organization Al Jazeera in 2024. “Every three months, it becomes ripe and we can harvest it. But harvest hasn’t been good at all lately.”

The neighboring nations of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana produce nearly 60 percent of the world’s cocoa. But many of the farmers there can’t afford to buy a chocolate bar. Extreme weather and other conditions in those countries have devastated recent harvests. The small, family-run farms are having to grow other crops to survive.

That’s bad news not just for Akoua and his fellow farmers. It’s also bad news for the rest of the world, because the global cocoa supply is shrinking.

Consumers have felt the financial effects. With less cocoa available, the ingredient has gotten more expensive. Global cocoa prices hit a new high this year (see graph, below). Now many chocolate products from cakes to ice cream will cost more too.

Cacao trees thrive only in hot tropical climates close to the equator, such as parts of Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America.

Cacao trees are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall. Even in the best conditions, they can take three or more years to produce their first harvest.

Extreme weather due to climate change has made cocoa farming even harder, experts say. In 2023, West Africa received record amounts of rainfall. The cocoa-producing areas in Côte d’Ivoire had their highest total precipitation in more than 20 years, according to the former data firm Gro Intelligence. That excess rain hurt the cocoa harvest.

This year, the farmers have had the opposite problem. West Africa has endured its second-worst drought in more than a decade. In addition, plant diseases are killing cacao trees.

As a result, cocoa production has drastically decreased over the past three harvesting seasons—by 467,000 metric tons in Côte d’Ivoire and by 448,000 metric tons in Ghana. (One metric ton is about 2,200 pounds.)

Cacao trees need hot tropical climates close to the equator, such as those in parts of Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America.

Cacao trees are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall. Even in the best conditions, they can take three or more years to produce their first harvest.

Extreme weather due to climate change has made cocoa farming even harder, experts say. In 2023, West Africa received record amounts of rainfall. The cocoa-producing areas in Côte d’Ivoire had their highest rain total in more than 20 years, according to the former data firm Gro Intelligence. That extra rain hurt the cocoa harvest.

This year, the farmers have had the opposite problem. West Africa has endured its second-worst drought in more than 10 years. Also, plant diseases are killing cacao trees.

As a result, cocoa production has drastically decreased over the past three harvesting seasons. Côte d’Ivoire’s harvest decreased by 467,000 metric tons, and Ghana’s was down by 448,000 metric tons. (One metric ton is about 2,200 pounds.)

Despite cocoa’s shrinking supply, consumers haven’t given up their love of chocolate goodies. Americans spent $25.9 billion on chocolate confections in 2023, compared with $19.2 billion spent on non-chocolate candy.

When goods or services are in high demand but in short supply, whoever’s selling them often raises prices. This is known as the law of supply and demand (see “Understanding Supply and Demand,” below). U.S. retail chocolate prices have increased 10 percent in the past year and are projected to keep rising, economists say.

“We’re at the mercy of a key ingredient that can really see a lot of variation in price . . . especially when there are problems with the environment,” says Melanie Marks, an economist who recently retired from Longwood University in Virginia.

Despite cocoa’s shrinking supply, consumers haven’t given up their love of chocolate goodies. Americans spent $25.9 billion on chocolate confections in 2023, compared with $19.2 billion spent on non-chocolate candy.

When goods or services are in high demand but in short supply, prices tend to go up. This is known as the law of supply and demand (see “Understanding Supply and Demand,” beow). U.S. retail chocolate prices have increased 10 percent in the past year. The prices are projected to keep rising, economists say.

“We’re at the mercy of a key ingredient that can really see a lot of variation in price . . . especially when there are problems with the environment,” says Melanie Marks, an economist who recently retired from Longwood University in Virginia.

But companies know they can raise prices only so much without losing customers, so they have other work-arounds. That includes shrinking package sizes or pushing candies with less chocolate. The new Chocolate Frosted Donut KitKat, for example, is dipped in chocolate on only one side.

Some companies also try to boost their products’ chocolate taste with artificial flavor. You might notice your favorite candy’s label says “chocolate flavor” instead of “chocolate.” To call it “chocolate,” a company must ensure that at least 10 percent of the candy’s weight is cocoa, according to U.S. food regulations.

But companies know they can raise prices only so much without losing customers. They have had to come up with other work-arounds. Changes include shrinking package sizes or creating candies with less chocolate. The new Chocolate Frosted Donut KitKat, for example, is dipped in chocolate on only one side.

Some companies are using artificial flavor to improve their products’ chocolate taste. You might notice your favorite candy’s label says “chocolate flavor” instead of “chocolate.” To call it “chocolate,” a company must ensure that at least 10 percent of the candy’s weight is cocoa, according to U.S. food regulations.