Are We Winning the War Against ISIS?

When Iraqi forces finally retook Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, from the terrorist group ISIS this summer after a nine-month battle, they came upon scenes of horrible carnage.

The fighting had reduced buildings to rubble, streets were littered with the burnt-out remains of cars and strewn with dead bodies, and the city’s liberators found starving families who’d huddled for weeks in basements to escape the gunfire.

ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) had controlled the city since 2014, subjecting residents to its brutal rule and punishing opponents with torture or death. The battle to push ISIS out of Mosul killed more than 40,000 civilians and forced nearly a million others to flee.

Iraqi forces finally retook Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, from the terrorist group ISIS this summer. This defeat came after a nine-month battle. When Iraqi troops went into the city, what they saw was horrific.

The fighting had reduced buildings to rubble. Streets were littered with the burnt-out remains of cars and scattered with dead bodies. The city’s liberators also found starving families who’d huddled for weeks in basements to escape the gunfire.

ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) had controlled the city since 2014. The terrorist group subjected residents to its brutal rule and punished opponents with torture or death. The battle to push ISIS out of Mosul killed more than 40,000 civilians and forced nearly a million others to flee.

The fall of the city to Iraqi troops supported by the United States was a major blow to ISIS—and the latest in a string of defeats for the radical Islamist group. Experts say ISIS has lost about 60 percent of its territory since January 2015, from an estimated 35,000 square miles to 14,000 square miles today (see map). In recent months, the U.S. and its allies have also killed top ISIS leaders, reduced the number of ISIS fighters, and cut off much of its oil supply—a major source of income.

“These are obviously major blows to ISIS,” says Hassan Hassan of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington, D.C. But “its leadership and its ability to grow back are still there.”

Indeed, experts warn that the fight against ISIS is far from complete. The organization continues to attract followers, carry out terrorist attacks in the region and beyond, and inspire extremists around the world to kill innocent people in ISIS’s name.

The fall of the city to Iraqi troops supported by the United States was a major blow to ISIS. It was also the latest in a string of defeats for the radical Islamist group. Experts say ISIS has lost about 60 percent of its territory since January 2015. That means their estimated 35,000 square miles have dropped to 14,000 square miles today (see map). In recent months, the U.S. and its allies have also killed top ISIS leaders and reduced the number of ISIS fighters. A major source of income for ISIS, its oil supply, has also been cut off.

“These are obviously major blows to ISIS,” says Hassan Hassan of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington, D.C. But “its leadership and its ability to grow back are still there.”

Indeed, experts warn that the fight against ISIS is far from complete. The organization continues to attract followers, carry out terrorist attacks in the region and beyond, and inspire extremists around the world to kill innocent people in its name. 

ISIS traces its roots to one of the radical groups that emerged in Iraq during the violent years that followed the 2003 American invasion. The group merged with other extremist groups in Syria to form what is now known as ISIS. Its goal from the beginning has been to re-establish a state ruled by strict Islamic law, known as a caliphate, like the ones that dominated the Middle East in past centuries. It also aims to destroy the West.

The group’s followers, Sunni Muslims, are engaged in a bitter rivalry with members of Islam’s other major sect, the Shiites. (That’s why ISIS sees the Shiite-led governments of Iraq and Syria as enemies.)

When Syria erupted into a civil war in 2011, ISIS took advantage of the disorder and began seizing territory. In December 2013, the group turned its attention back to Iraq, capturing a vast area of land and terrorizing people under its control. It publicly executed opponents, sold thousands into slavery, and forced religious minorities to convert to Islam or die. It also seized oil refineries, required people to pay high taxes, and stole hundreds of millions of dollars from Iraq’s national bank. In June 2014, ISIS declared its conquered territory the new caliphate of the Islamic State. 

In response, then-President Barack Obama authorized a bombing campaign intended to wipe out ISIS. Since then, an international coalition led by the U.S. has conducted more than 12,000 airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq and 10,000 in Syria.  

ISIS traces its roots to one of the radical groups that emerged in Iraq during the violent years that followed the 2003 American invasion. The group has joined other extremist groups in Syria to form what is now known as ISIS. Its goal from the beginning has been to re-establish a state ruled by strict Islam. These types of states, called caliphates, dominated the Middle East in past centuries. It also aims to destroy the West.

The group’s followers are Sunni Muslims. They're engaged in a bitter rivalry with members of Islam’s other major sect, the Shiites. That’s why ISIS sees the Shiite-led governments of Iraq and Syria as enemies.

When Syria erupted into a civil war in 2011, ISIS took advantage of the disorder and began taking control of territory. In December 2013, the group turned its attention back to Iraq. There, ISIS captured a vast area of land and terrorized people under its control. It publicly executed opponents, sold thousands into slavery, and forced religious minorities to convert to Islam or die. It also took over oil refineries, required people to pay high taxes, and stole hundreds of millions of dollars from Iraq’s national bank. In June 2014, ISIS declared its conquered territory the new caliphate of the Islamic State.

In response, then-President Barack Obama authorized a bombing campaign intended to wipe out ISIS. Since then, an international alliance led by the U.S. has conducted more than 20,000 airstrikes against ISIS. That's included 12,000 airstrikes in Iraq and 10,000 in Syria. 

As ISIS is driven back, experts say its goal of establishing an actual state is crumbling. Having lost oil reserves and tax revenue, the group’s average monthly income has plummeted 80 percent, from $81 million in 2015 to $16 million this year. And according to U.S. officials, more than 60,000 ISIS fighters have been killed since June 2014—a loss of about 75 percent.

Despite such victories, defeating ISIS for good won’t be easy. The group still controls parts of Iraq and Syria and has gained a foothold in other countries, including Afghanistan and the Philippines.

It also continues to attract recruits through a worldwide social media campaign that targets alienated Muslims—and to inspire people to commit violence in its name. ISIS carried out or inspired a series of recent attacks in Europe, including ones in London, Paris, and at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England. In the U.S., ISIS claimed responsibility for the 2016 attack at a nightclub in Orlando, Florida, that killed 49 people.

As ISIS is driven back, experts say its goal of establishing an actual state is crumbling. Having lost oil supplies and tax revenue, the group’s average monthly income has sunk 80 percent. That means they’ve gone from making $81 million a month in 2015 to $16 million a month this year. And according to U.S. officials, more than 60,000 ISIS fighters have been killed since June 2014. That's a loss of about 75 percent.

Despite such victories, defeating ISIS for good won’t be easy. The group still controls parts of Iraq and Syria. It's also gained a foothold in other countries, including Afghanistan and the Philippines.

ISIS continues to attract recruits through a worldwide social media campaign that targets alienated Muslims. This campaign has also inspired people to carry out deadly attacks in the group's name. ISIS carried out or inspired a series of recent attacks in Europe. This includes ones in London, Paris, and at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England. In the U.S., ISIS claimed responsibility for the 2016 attack at a nightclub in Orlando, Florida, that killed 49 people.

As Iraqi and U.S. forces continue to retake territory from ISIS, another challenge will be to rebuild—and stabilize—war-torn areas in Iraq and Syria so people displaced by ISIS can return home. That includes clearing the rubble, repairing housing, creating jobs, restoring electricity, and establishing strong local governments.

“When the fighting stops, the humanitarian crisis continues,” says Lise Grande of the United Nations.

Another question is whether U.S. troops will stay in Iraq and Syria to prevent ISIS—or another terrorist organization—from gaining ground. President Trump is expected to send nearly 4,000 troops to Afghanistan, in part to help combat ISIS (see “ISIS in Afghanistan,” below).

Many people whose lives have been destroyed by ISIS are relieved that the group is under siege—at least for now.

“I am happy that [ISIS] is dying,” says Ahmed Abdul-Qadir, a native of Syria. “But the fear of what might come next is killing this happiness.”

As Iraqi and U.S. forces continue to retake territory from ISIS, another challenge will be to rebuild and stabilize war-torn areas in Iraq and Syria. This will allow people displaced by ISIS to return home. That includes clearing the rubble, repairing housing, creating jobs, restoring electricity, and establishing strong local governments.

“When the fighting stops, the humanitarian crisis continues,” says Lise Grande of the United Nations.

Another question is whether U.S. troops will stay in Iraq and Syria to prevent ISIS or another terrorist organization from gaining ground. President Trump is expected to send nearly 4,000 troops to Afghanistan, in part to help combat ISIS (see “ISIS in Afghanistan,” below).

Many people whose lives have been destroyed by ISIS are relieved that the group is under siege—at least for now.

“I am happy that [ISIS] is dying,” says Ahmed Abdul-Qadir, a native of Syria. “But the fear of what might come next is killing this happiness.”    

With reporting by Ben Hubbard, Eric Schmitt, Tim Arango, and Michael R. Gordon of The New York Times.

With reporting by Ben Hubbard, Eric Schmitt, Tim Arango, and Michael R. Gordon of The New York Times.