Has a ‘Youth Wave’ Begun?

Maddy Scannell, a 19-year-old sophomore at Rice University in Houston, not only voted for the first time in the midterm elections, she also spent hours every week registering fellow students to vote and educating them about the kind of paperwork and ID they’d need to cast their ballots in Texas.

And in the weeks leading up to the November 6 midterms, she helped organize rides for students to early- voting locations.

“I think the election was a referendum on the direction our country is heading,” Scannell says about why she and other students got so involved.

Traditionally, young people have voted in lower proportions than every other age group. But in the 2018 midterm elections, the voter turnout rate for those ages 18 to 29 shot up to 31 percent, from 21 percent in the 2014 midterm elections (see graph).

While that may not seem like a very high percentage, and it remains far below the 49 percent turnout for the electorate as a whole, it still sent a loud message, according to voting experts.

“It’s huge,” says Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of civic engagement at CIRCLE, a group at Tufts University that tracks youth voting trends. “It’s the highest turnout we’ve seen since we started collecting data in 1994.”

Preliminary numbers indicate that young voters also increased their share of the overall electorate to 13 percent from 11 percent, according to John Della Volpe, who studies youth political engagement at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. This means that in a year when turnout was up among every age group, it increased even more among the youngest voters.

Maddy Scannell, a 19-year-old sophomore at Rice University in Houston, voted for the first time in the midterm elections. But she also went a few steps beyond that. She spent hours every week registering fellow students to vote and educating them about the kind of paperwork and ID they’d need to cast their ballots in Texas.

And in the weeks leading up to the November 6 midterms, she helped organize rides for students to early-voting locations.

“I think the election was a referendum on the direction our country is heading,” Scannell says about why she and other students got so involved.

Traditionally, young people have voted in lower proportions than every other age group. But in the 2018 midterm elections, the voter turnout rate for those ages 18 to 29 shot up to 31 percent. That’s a jump from 21 percent in the 2014 midterm elections (see graph).

The turnout for the electorate as a whole hovers around 49 percent. In comparison, the youth turnout for the latest midterm elections may not seem like a very high percentage. But it still sent a loud message, according to voting experts.

“It’s huge,” says Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of civic engagement at CIRCLE, a group at Tufts University that tracks youth voting trends. “It’s the highest turnout we’ve seen since we started collecting data in 1994.”

Preliminary numbers show that young voters also increased their share of the overall electorate from 11 percent to 13 percent, according to John Della Volpe, who studies youth political engagement at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. This means that in a year when turnout was up among every age group, it increased even more among the youngest voters.  

Experts say this “youth wave” at the polls was due to a number of factors: Many young people are fed up with increasingly divisive politics and voted to express their dissatisfaction. And the school shooting last February at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, and the burst of student activism that followed it encouraged many young people to vote.

If youth turnout levels continue to rise in the coming years, it could have huge implications for our political system, experts say. For one thing, it could push  candidates to pay more attention to young voters and the issues they care about, such as the environment, student debt, health care, and gun violence.

“There’s been an assumption over time, shared by politicians and political operatives, that young people are not really worth talking to because they’re so unreliable as voters,” Kawashima-Ginsberg says. 

The lesson of the 2018 election, she says, is that young voters can have a huge impact on who wins and politicians should work to earn their votes.

Experts say this “youth wave” at the polls was due to various factors. Many young people are fed up with increasingly divisive politics. So they voted to express their dissatisfaction. And the school shooting last February at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, and the burst of student activism that followed it encouraged many young people to vote.

If youth turnout levels continue to rise in the coming years, it could have huge implications for our political system, experts say. For one thing, it could push candidates to pay more attention to young voters and the issues they care about. That includes things like the environment, student debt, health care, and gun violence.

“There’s been an assumption over time, shared by politicians and political operatives, that young people are not really worth talking to because they’re so unreliable as voters,” Kawashima-Ginsberg says. 

The lesson of the 2018 election, she says, is that young voters can have a huge impact on who wins. It also showed that politicians should work to earn their votes.

Exit polls indicate that young voters were crucial to the outcome of several statewide races. In Wisconsin, they helped Democrat Tony Evers beat Republican Scott Walker to become governor. In Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen narrowly beat Republican Dean Heller in the U.S. Senate race thanks to support from voters under 30.

Della Volpe of the Kennedy School says young voters “absolutely made the difference in a lot of races.” 

Part of the reason is that millennials—the generation born between 1981 and 1996—are much more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.

According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 59 percent of millennial voters say they’re Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 32 percent who say they’re Republicans or lean Republican. (For voters of all ages, the breakdown is 50 percent for Democrats versus 42 percent for Republicans.)

Midterm exit polls showed an even wider gap for young voters: 67 percent said they voted for Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives, while 32 percent said they voted for Republicans.  

Exit polls indicate that young voters were crucial to the outcome of several statewide races. In Wisconsin, they helped Democrat Tony Evers beat Republican Scott Walker to become governor. In Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen narrowly beat Republican Dean Heller in the U.S. Senate race thanks to support from voters under 30.

Della Volpe of the Kennedy School says young voters “absolutely made the difference in a lot of races.”

Part of the reason is that millennials are much more likely to be Democrats than Republicans. Millennials are the generation born between 1981 and 1996.

According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 59 percent of millennial voters say they’re Democrats or lean Democratic. In comparison, 32 percent say they’re Republicans or lean Republican. For voters of all ages, the breakdown is 50 percent for Democrats versus 42 percent for Republicans.

Midterm exit polls showed an even wider gap for young voters. About 67 percent said they voted for Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives. Only 32 percent said they voted for Republicans.

Even before Election Day, there were some signs that this year might be different. Student survivors of the Parkland school shooting responded to the tragedy by launching a political movement, calling on young people to register to vote and support gun control.

And a month before the election, pop star Taylor Swift’s plea to her 112 million Instagram followers to register to vote seems to have had an impact: In the 24-hour period after Swift’s post, 65,000 people registered to vote.

Scannell, the Rice student, was already registered, but she was heartened by the impact Swift’s announcement seemed to have.

“It’s important to realize that voting now can affect your life decades down the line,” she says.

Given how poor youth turnout has been historically, no one knows whether the burst of political enthusiasm among young people will continue—or even deepen—in the 2020 presidential election. But some experts are optimistic.  

“Young people are encouraged by their own impact this year,” Kawashima-Ginsberg says. “Politics is now cool, and I think that’s huge in terms of how sustainable this level of energy is.”

Even before Election Day, there were some signs that this year might be different. Student survivors of the Parkland school shooting responded to the tragedy by launching a political movement. They called on young people to register to vote and support gun control.

And a month before the election, pop star Taylor Swift urged her 112 million Instagram followers to register to vote. It seems to have had an impact: In the 24-hour period after Swift’s post, 65,000 people registered to vote. 

Scannell, the Rice student, was already registered, but she was heartened by the impact Swift’s announcement seemed to have.

“It’s important to realize that voting now can affect your life decades down the line,” she says.

Given how poor youth turnout has been historically, no one knows whether the burst of political enthusiasm among young people will continue or even deepen in the 2020 presidential election. But some experts are optimistic. 

“Young people are encouraged by their own impact this year,” Kawashima-Ginsberg says. “Politics is now cool, and I think that’s huge in terms of how sustainable this level of energy is.”