The Battle Over the Census

The question seems simple enough at first glance: Are you a citizen?

That’s the question the Trump administration wants to add to the 2020 Census. But it’s caused a huge uproar. Nineteen states, a number of cities, and a variety of immigrant groups have filed six separate lawsuits objecting to the question. They’re trying to block the question from appearing on the once-a-decade national head count that will be conducted next year.

Those who oppose the citizenship question say that it will intimidate both legal and undocumented immigrants. They argue that this will cause many immigrants to skip responding to the census altogether. And that, they say, could lead to a wildly inaccurate count with massive repercussions for the nation.

“What the Trump administration is requesting is not just alarming, it is an unconstitutional attempt to discourage an accurate census count,” says Xavier Becerra, attorney general for California, one of the states suing to have the citizenship question removed.

The Trump administration announced the addition of the citizenship question last spring. It said it needs the data to better enable the Department of Justice to enforce voting laws. Having a more accurate count of citizens nationwide, officials say, would help them calculate the number of people eligible to vote in each state.

“I would think that’s a very reasonable thing,” then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions told Congress last April, “and I think concerns over it are overblown.”

The administration also points out that a citizenship question was routinely part of the census through 1950. President Trump tweeted recently that the census would be “meaningless” without the “all important Citizenship Question.”

The United States Census is more than just a count of the nation’s population. It’s a snapshot of America that determines everything from how many seats in Congress each state gets to how federal money is distributed and whether a new H&M opens near your house (see “What Is the Census Used For?” below).

It all goes back to the Constitution, which requires the federal government to count the nation’s residents every 10 years. It’s been faithfully doing so since 1790. That first year, 650 census workers were instructed to track down every living person in the original 13 states. In 2020, the Census Bureau expects to hire 350,000 people to go door-to-door to interview those who don’t send back the questionnaires that are mailed to every address in the nation. In their quest to tally every last person, census workers have been known to use snowmobiles to get to remote Alaskan villages and lobster boats to reach distant islands off the coast of Maine.

The Constitution calls for a count of all citizens and noncitizens living in the U.S. in order to redistribute the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, which are allocated based on population. (Places with expanding populations gain representatives, and those with declining populations lose them.)

“The Founding Fathers wanted everyone to participate, whether you were a citizen or not,” says Robert Groves, provost of Georgetown University and a former director of the Census Bureau.

The administration also points out that a citizenship question was routinely part of the census through 1950. President Trump tweeted recently that the census would be “meaningless” without the “all important Citizenship Question.”

The United States Census is more than just a count of the nation’s population. It’s a snapshot of America. And it determines everything from how many seats in Congress each state gets to how federal money is distributed. It can even impact whether a new H&M opens near your house (see “What Is the Census Used For?” below).

It all goes back to the Constitution. By law, the federal government must count the nation’s residents every 10 years. It’s been faithfully doing so since 1790. That first year, 650 census workers had the task of tracking down every living person in the original 13 states. In 2020, the Census Bureau expects to hire 350,000 people. Questionnaires will be mailed to every address in the nation, and census workers will go door-to-door to interview those who don’t send back the questionnaires. In their quest to tally every last person, census workers have been known to use snowmobiles to get to remote Alaskan villages and lobster boats to reach distant islands off the coast of Maine.

The Constitution calls for a count of all citizens and noncitizens living in the U.S. in order to redistribute the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. These seats are divided based on population. (Places with growing populations gain representatives, and those with declining populations lose them.)

“The Founding Fathers wanted everyone to participate, whether you were a citizen or not,” says Robert Groves, provost of Georgetown University and a former director
of the Census Bureau.

This year, a number of states and advocacy groups are worried that the addition of the citizenship question might put that goal of universal participation at risk. So worried, in fact, that they took legal action soon after the citizenship question was announced, accusing Trump administration officials of violating the constitutional requirement to count everyone. The largest of the lawsuits—in which 18* states, the District of Columbia, and some cities and advocacy groups are suing the Trump administration—notes that the Census Bureau has warned for decades that questioning residents about their immigration status or citizenship would “inevitably jeopardize the overall accuracy of the population count.”

Over the last six months, federal judges in New York, California, and Maryland have ruled against allowing the citizenship question, and the Trump administration has appealed to the Supreme Court. Last month, the justices heard arguments in the New York case. A ruling is expected before summer, when the printing of the census forms is scheduled to begin.  

This year, a number of states and advocacy groups are worried about the addition of the citizenship question. They fear it might put that goal of universal participation at risk. In fact, they’re so worried that they took legal action soon after the citizenship question was announced. They’ve accused Trump administration officials of violating the constitutional requirement to count everyone. In the largest of the lawsuits, 18* states, the District of Columbia, and some cities and advocacy groups are suing the Trump administration. It notes that the Census Bureau has warned for decades that questioning residents about their immigration status or citizenship would “inevitably jeopardize the overall accuracy of the population count.”

Over the past six months, federal judges in New York, California, and Maryland have ruled against allowing the citizenship question. The Trump administration has appealed these rulings to the Supreme Court. Last month, the justices heard arguments in the New York case. A ruling is expected before summer, when the printing of the census forms is scheduled to begin.

How all these legal proceedings shake out could have a major impact. A little more than half of the nation’s 44.5 million immigrants are not U.S. citizens. Of those noncitizens, a little more than half have visas or green cards that allow them to live in the U.S. legally. And about 11 million of them are undocumented. The census doesn’t identify individual respondents. Still, demographers worry that any U.S. household with at least one person who’s not a citizen will be less likely to participate in the census because of fears of deportation.

Overall, 14 percent of U.S. residents live in households that include one or more people who aren’t citizens. That figure rises sharply if you look at specific minority groups. Almost half of Hispanics and Asians—46 percent and 45 percent, respectively—live in households with at least one noncitizen.

This year, the lawsuit says, immigrants’ fears over the census have been heightened: “Those concerns have been amplified by the anti-immigrant policies, actions, and rhetoric targeting immigrant communities from President Trump and this administration,” the lawsuit says.

President Trump has made a crackdown on illegal immigration the centerpiece of his presidency. The fight over Trump’s plan to build a wall on the border with Mexico led to a shutdown of the federal government in December. Trump has stepped up arrests and deportations of undocumented immigrants. He’s drastically reduced the number of refugees allowed into the country. He’s also proposed tighter restrictions on legal immigration. The policies, Trump says, are aimed at keeping Americans safe and protecting U.S. jobs.

Immigrants are concentrated in large states like New York and California. That means the effect of undercounting them would be to weaken the power of the country’s most populous states, says William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank in Washington, D.C. If 15 percent of noncitizens go uncounted, that would be enough to cost California and New York one congressional seat and one electoral vote each. That loss would likely benefit Colorado and Montana, Frey says.

Democrats say what’s really going on is an attempt by Republicans to increase their power by fudging the numbers.

“This is a brazen attempt by the Trump administration to cheat on the census, to undermine the accuracy of the census and to attack states that have large immigrant populations—states, most of which just happen to be Democratic states,” says Congressman Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York.

Ultimately, he argues, the census isn’t a zero-sum game in which one group gains if another group loses. For example, the long-term economic health of older white Americans depends, he says, on a robust U.S. economy. But the economy won’t be as strong as it could be if young people—who are increasingly minorities or the children of immigrants—haven’t gotten the resources they need to succeed.

“Forcing an inaccurate accounting of who resides in the nation,” says Frey, “will have long-term negative consequences for everyone.”

The Supreme Court will ultimately decide which arguments win out. But despite all the controversy over the 2020 Census, some still hope that the national head count will turn out to be a unifying force to some extent.

“The census is the only event in the country where everyone is asked to participate,” says Groves, the former Census Bureau director. “Elections are for those who are eligible to vote. Not everyone goes to schools. The census is unique.”

Ultimately, he argues, the census isn’t a zero-sum game in which one group gains if another group loses. For example, the long-term economic health of older white Americans depends, he says, on a robust U.S. economy. Young people in the U.S. are increasingly minorities or the children of immigrants. The economy won’t be as strong as it could be if they haven’t gotten the resources they need to succeed.

“Forcing an inaccurate accounting of who resides in the nation,” says Frey, “will have long-term negative consequences for everyone.”

There’s been a lot of controversy over the 2020 Census. The Supreme Court will ultimately decide which arguments win out. And some still hope that the national head count will turn out to be a unifying force to some extent.

“The census is the only event in the country where everyone is asked to participate,” says Groves, the former Census Bureau director. “Elections are for those who are eligible to vote. Not everyone goes to schools. The census is unique.”

*California is suing separately.

*California is suing separately.