Danger Zones

In his first two years in the White House, President Trump has moved to remake America’s relations with much of the world.

He’s withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and major international trade deals, all of which he says were bad for Americans. He’s placed tariffs* on imported steel and aluminum—angering longtime allies like Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. At the same time, President Trump has thrown himself into high-level negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in an effort to remove the threat of Kim’s nuclear weapons.

At the heart of all these initiatives is Trump’s “America First” philosophy: He aims to prioritize the national security and economic interests of the U.S. ahead of solving other countries’ problems. Critics, however, argue that by stepping back from its global responsibilities, the U.S. risks relinquishing its leadership role in world affairs.

“Trump’s approach to foreign policy is a total departure from everything we’ve done since the Second World War,” says James Goldgeier, a professor of international relations at American University in Washington, D.C.

Here’s a look at the five nations likely to dominate Trump’s foreign policy agenda as we head toward 2019—Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and Mexico—and the challenges each poses for the U.S.

*Tariffs are taxes on imports or exports.

In his first two years in the White House, President Trump has moved to remake America’s relations with much of the world.

He’s withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and major international trade deals. He says these were bad for Americans. He’s placed tariffs* on imported steel and aluminum. That’s angered longtime allies like Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. At the same time, President Trump has thrown himself into high-level negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It’s been part of an effort to remove the threat of Kim’s nuclear weapons.

At the heart of all these initiatives is Trump’s “America First” philosophy. He aims to prioritize the national security and economic interests of the U.S. ahead of solving other countries’ problems. Critics, however, argue that by stepping back from its global responsibilities, the U.S. risks relinquishing its leadership role in world affairs.

“Trump’s approach to foreign policy is a total departure from everything we’ve done since the Second World War,” says James Goldgeier, a professor of international relations at American University in Washington, D.C.

Here’s a look at the five nations likely to dominate Trump’s foreign policy agenda as we head toward 2019—Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and Mexico—and the challenges each poses for the U.S.

*Tariffs are taxes on imports or exports.

In May, President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, which was intended to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Under the agreement—which the Obama administration, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia negotiated in 2015—Iran turned over most of its enriched uranium in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions.

President Trump called the agreement “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.” The U.S. will now move quickly, he says, to reimpose economic sanctions and to punish foreign companies that continue doing business in Iran.

The decision to abandon the deal signals a return to the hostility that has characterized relations between the U.S. and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.  

The collapse of the nuclear deal isn’t the only bone of contention between the two countries. The U.S. accuses Iran of financing terrorist groups that have long contributed to instability in the Middle East. Iran has also supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war; the U.S. considers Assad a war criminal because he’s attacked his own people with banned chemical weapons. Relations became more strained last year when the Trump administration included Iran in the group of countries on its travel ban list.  

Now, some fear that the end of the nuclear deal may prompt Iran to restart its nuclear program.

“The risk,” says Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “is if there’s no path forward for cooperation with Iran, the only thing you leave is a path for conflict.”

In May, President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal. The deal was intended to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The Obama administration, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia negotiated the agreement in 2015. Under it, Iran turned over most of its enriched uranium in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions.

President Trump called the agreement “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.” The U.S. will now move quickly, he says, to reimpose economic sanctions and to punish foreign companies that continue doing business in Iran.

The decision to abandon the deal signals a return to the hostility that has characterized relations between the U.S. and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The collapse of the nuclear deal isn’t the only bone of contention between the two countries. The U.S. accuses Iran of financing terrorist groups that have long contributed to instability in the Middle East. Iran has also supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war. The U.S. considers Assad a war criminal because he’s attacked his own people with banned chemical weapons. Relations became more strained last year when the Trump administration included Iran in the group of countries on its travel ban list.

Now, some fear that the end of the nuclear deal may prompt Iran to restart its nuclear program.

“The risk,” says Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “is if there’s no path forward for cooperation with Iran, the only thing you leave is a path for conflict.”

Russia has been everywhere in the news lately. That’s largely because U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election, with a computer hacking and disinformation campaign that was intended to help Donald Trump defeat Hillary Clinton.  

The question of whether the Trump campaign was involved in those efforts is the subject of an ongoing investigation by Robert Mueller, the independent counsel appointed by the Justice Department. President Trump has repeatedly denied the accusation.

Since taking office, Trump has pushed for better relations with Russia. Some White House aides have said the president believes this would be in America’s best interest. But the two nations remain at odds on many issues. Russia backs the regimes of Syria and Iran. And the U.S. and Russia are divided over NATO. The U.S. has traditionally been a leader of this 29-country alliance, which is dedicated to protecting the freedom of Western Europe, but Russia sees NATO as an adversary.

Russia’s hostile attitude toward the West is largely the work of President Vladimir Putin, who has led Russia for 18 years and just started another six-year term. At home, Putin’s increasingly authoritarian government has arrested many opposition activists and restricted the media. Internationally, Russia has been just as aggressive, seizing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

“Russia has become a threat,” says Bill Taylor of the United States Institute of Peace, “not only to its own people’s well-being, but also to its neighbors and the rest of the world.”

Russia has been everywhere in the news lately. That’s largely because U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. The Russian government led a computer hacking and disinformation campaign that was intended to help Donald Trump defeat Hillary Clinton.

The question of whether the Trump campaign was involved in those efforts is the subject of an ongoing investigation by Robert Mueller, the independent counsel appointed by the Justice Department. President Trump has repeatedly denied the accusation.

Since taking office, Trump has pushed for better relations with Russia. Some White House aides have said the president believes this would be in America’s best interest. But the two nations remain at odds on many issues. Russia backs the regimes of Syria and Iran. And the U.S. and Russia are divided over NATO. The U.S. has traditionally been a leader of this 29-country alliance. The group is dedicated to protecting the freedom of Western Europe. But Russia sees NATO as an adversary.

Russia’s hostile attitude toward the West is largely the work of President Vladimir Putin. He has led Russia for 18 years and just started another six-year term. At home, Putin’s increasingly authoritarian government has arrested many opposition activists and restricted the media. Internationally, Russia has been just as aggressive, seizing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

“Russia has become a threat,” says Bill Taylor of the United States Institute of Peace, “not only to its own people’s well-being, but also to its neighbors and the rest of the world.”

By 2030, China will overtake the U.S. and become the world’s largest economy. China is using that growing economic strength to boost its military and diplomatic clout around the world.

China now has the world’s largest army, with almost double the number of active troops in the U.S. armed forces. Its navy is also one of the world’s largest.

Under President Xi Jinping, China has seized areas of the South China Sea that are claimed by other nations. There, Chinese engineers have created a series of artificial islands that are being turned into military bases.  

By 2030, China will overtake the U.S. and become the world’s largest economy. China is using that growing economic strength to boost its military and diplomatic clout around the world.

China now has the world’s largest army, with almost double the number of active troops in the U.S. armed forces. Its navy is also one of the world’s largest.

Under President Xi Jinping, China has seized areas of the South China Sea that are claimed by other nations. There, Chinese engineers have created a series of artificial islands. These areas are being turned into military bases. 

China is also using its growing wealth to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure around the globe. These projects—which include military bases in strategic spots—are intended to boost China’s global influence.  

President Trump has accused China of unfair trade practices, leading to concerns that the U.S. and China could be on the verge of an all-out trade war (a situation in which two countries try to damage each other by imposing tariffs). Some economists fear the disputes could ultimately hurt global trade and potentially cost jobs—in the U.S. and abroad. President Trump, however, has said he’s not afraid of a trade war, which he promises the U.S. would easily win.

Either way, tensions are likely to continue as the U.S. and China struggle for global influence.

China is also using its growing wealth to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure around the globe. These projects include military bases in strategic spots. They’re intended to boost China’s global influence.

President Trump has accused China of unfair trade practices. This has created concerns that the U.S. and China could be on the verge of an all-out trade war. That’s a situation in which two countries try to damage each other by imposing tariffs. Some economists fear the disputes could ultimately hurt global trade and potentially cost jobs in the U.S. and abroad. President Trump, however, has said he’s not afraid of a trade war, which he promises the U.S. would easily win.

Either way, tensions are likely to continue as the U.S. and China struggle for global influence.

The historic summit meeting in June between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un holds out the promise of eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula and ending decades of hostility dating back to the Korean War. But for now, North Korea still poses a real threat to the U.S. and its allies.

North Korea has nuclear weapons, and missiles capable of striking the U.S., and just a year ago, Kim was threatening to use them—and Trump was threatening to “totally destroy” North Korea.

At the summit, Kim agreed to denuclearize his country. But neither he nor Trump said how that would be accomplished, and experts said there’s good reason to doubt Kim’s sincerity.

The historic summit meeting in June between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un holds out the promise of eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula and ending decades of hostility dating back to the Korean War. But for now, North Korea still poses a real threat to the U.S. and its allies.

North Korea has nuclear weapons, and missiles capable of striking the U.S. Just a year ago, Kim was threatening to use them and Trump was threatening to “totally destroy” North Korea.

At the summit, Kim agreed to denuclearize his country. But neither he nor Trump said how that would be accomplished. And experts said there’s good reason to doubt Kim’s sincerity.

While some criticized Trump for praising the brutal young North Korean dictator and treating him like any other world leader, the president said he had no such qualms.

“If I have to say I’m sitting on a stage with Chairman Kim and that gets us to save 30 million lives . . .I’m willing to sit on a stage,” President Trump said.

Even with the many unanswered questions, some experts said the summit set the volatile relationship between the two nations on a more productive path.

“Despite its many flaws,” says Georgetown University professor Victor Cha, “the Singapore summit represents the start of a diplomatic process that takes us away from the brink of war.”

While some criticized Trump for praising the brutal young North Korean dictator and treating him like any other world leader, the president said he had no such qualms.

“If I have to say I’m sitting on a stage with Chairman Kim and that gets us to save 30 million lives . . . I’m willing to sit on a stage,” President Trump said.

Even with the many unanswered questions, some experts said the summit set the volatile relationship between the two nations on a more productive path.

“Despite its many flaws,” says Georgetown University professor Victor Cha, “the Singapore summit represents the start of a diplomatic process that takes us away from the brink of war.”

Relations between the U.S. and Mexico have become severely strained since President Trump took office. One bone of contention between the countries is the 5.6 million Mexicans who live in the U.S. illegally. Trump has promised to build a wall to seal the entire 1,900-mile border, and he has insisted that he’ll force Mexico to pay for the wall’s construction—something Mexico has flatly refused to do.

Trump has also condemned the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he has called the “worst trade deal ever.” Trump says the 1994 NAFTA deal—between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada—created unfair incentives for U.S. companies to move jobs to Mexico. His calls to renegotiate or end NAFTA have resonated with many working-class Americans who’ve seen factories close and jobs disappear. But NAFTA has also been responsible for a huge surge in trade between the U.S. and Mexico that many economists say has benefited other American business sectors, such as agriculture.

Both the U.S. and Mexico have much to lose if their relationship turns hostile. The two countries are important economic partners, conducting more than $580 billion in trade every year. They cooperate on border security and other issues. Can they resolve their disputes while still remaining productive neighbors and economic partners?

 Chris Wilson, a Mexico expert at the Wilson Center, thinks so. “There’s a huge set of incentives to keep working together,” he says. “We keep each other safer, and we make each other more competitive.”

Relations between the U.S. and Mexico have become severely strained since President Trump took office.

One bone of contention between the countries is the 5.6 million Mexicans who live in the U.S. illegally. Trump has promised to build a wall to seal the entire 1,900-mile border. He has insisted that he’ll force Mexico to pay for the wall’s construction. That’s something Mexico has flatly refused to do.

Trump has also condemned the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He has called the deal between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada the “worst trade deal ever.” Trump says the 1994 NAFTA deal created unfair incentives for U.S. companies to move jobs to Mexico. His calls to renegotiate or end NAFTA have resonated with many working-class Americans who’ve seen factories close and jobs disappear. But NAFTA has also been responsible for a huge surge in trade between the U.S. and Mexico. Many economists say that has benefited other American business sectors, such as agriculture.

Both the U.S. and Mexico have much to lose if their relationship turns hostile. The two countries are important economic partners, conducting more than $580 billion in trade every year. They cooperate on border security and other issues. Can they resolve their disputes while still remaining productive neighbors and economic partners?

Chris Wilson, a Mexico expert at the Wilson Center, thinks so. “There’s a huge set of incentives to keep working together,” he says. “We keep each other safer, and we make each other more competitive.”