Too Hot to Handle

One afternoon this summer, the Algerian town of Ouargla, on the edge of the Sahara, recorded a high of 124 degrees Fahrenheit. Even for this hot country, it was an all-time record, according to Algeria’s national meteorological service.

Abdelmalek Ibek Ag Sahli was at work in a petroleum plant on the outskirts of the town that day. He and the rest of his crew had to be there by 7 a.m., part of a regular 12-hour daily shift. But the heat was so intense they lasted only a few hours. “It was impossible to do the work,” Sahli says. “It was hell.”

By 11 a.m., he and his colleagues walked off the job.

Sahli wasn’t the only one struggling with unbearable heat this summer, as record-breaking heat waves gripped countries around the world. The contiguous United States had its hottest month of May ever recorded and the third-hottest month of June. Japan was walloped by record triple-digit temperatures, killing at least 86 people. And in Northern Europe, heat waves were so intense that they caused nuclear power plants to be shut down because the river water that cools the reactors was too warm.

Why are heat waves getting more intense? Scientists with the World Weather Attribution project, a group based at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, concluded in a study this summer that the likelihood of having a heat wave like the one that baked Northern Europe is “more than two times higher today than if human activities had not altered climate.”

One afternoon this summer, the Algerian town of Ouargla, on the edge of the Sahara, recorded a high of 124 degrees Fahrenheit. Algeria is one of the world’s hottest countries. But it was still an all-time record, according to Algeria’s national meteorological service.

Abdelmalek Ibek Ag Sahli was at work in a petroleum plant on the outskirts of the town that day. He and the rest of his crew had to be there by 7 a.m. for their regular 12-hour daily shift. But the heat was so intense they lasted only a few hours. “It was impossible to do the work,” Sahli says. “It was hell.”

By 11 a.m., he and his colleagues walked off the job.

Sahli wasn’t the only one struggling with unbearable heat this summer. In fact, record-breaking heat waves gripped countries around the world. The contiguous United States had its hottest month of May ever recorded and the third-hottest month of June. Japan was hit hard by record triple-digit temperatures, killing at least 86 people. And in Northern Europe, heat waves were so intense that they caused nuclear power plants to be shut down. The river water that cools the reactors was too warm because of the heat.

Why are heat waves getting more intense? Scientists with the World Weather Attribution project conducted a study on this trend this summer. The group, which is based at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, made a striking conclusion. They found that the likelihood of having a heat wave like the one that baked Northern Europe is “more than two times higher today than if human activities had not altered climate.”

Studies like this aren’t yet available for other record-heat episodes this year. But scientists say there’s little doubt that human-caused climate change is making heat waves more frequent and intense—and we may be seeing in real time how unprepared much of the world remains for life on a hotter planet.

“[Climate change] is not a future scenario,” says Elena Manaenkova, deputy head of the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland. “It is happening now.”

Globally, this is shaping up to be the fourth-hottest year ever recorded. The only years hotter were the three previous ones. In fact, 17 of the 18 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001.

That string of records is part of a larger trend. Since the 1880s, Earth’s average temperature has risen by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit—a phenomenon called global warming. (Global warming together with its side effects is called climate change.)

Average temperatures have always fluctuated naturally over time, but the vast majority of scientists say the current warming is being largely driven by human activities. Burning fossil fuels, like oil and coal, to heat homes, power cars, and generate electricity releases carbon dioxide and other gases that trap more heat in the atmosphere. Because they behave like the panes in a greenhouse, they’re called greenhouse gases, and their influence on Earth’s temperature is called the greenhouse effect. The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases, the warmer the planet gets.

Studies like this aren’t yet available for other record-heat episodes this year. But scientists say there’s little doubt that human-caused climate change is making heat waves more frequent and intense. And we m ay be seeing in real time how unprepared much of the world remains for life on a hotter planet.

“[Climate change] is not a future scenario,” says Elena Manaenkova, deputy head of the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland. “It is happening now.” 

Globally, this is shaping up to be the fourth-hottest year ever recorded. The only years hotter were the three previous ones. In fact, 17 of the 18 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001.

That string of records is part of a larger trend. Since the 1880s, Earth’s average temperature has risen by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. This phenomenon is known as global warming. Global warming together with its side effects is called climate change.

Average temperatures have always varied naturally over time. However, the vast majority of scientists say the current warming is being largely driven by human activities. We burn fossil fuels, like oil and coal, to heat homes, power cars, and generate electricity. This releases carbon dioxide and other gases that trap more heat in the atmosphere. Because they behave like the panes in a greenhouse, they’re called greenhouse gases. The influence of these gases on Earth’s temperature is called the greenhouse effect. The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases, the warmer the planet gets.

A study published in the journal Science Advances in 2017 found that if temperatures continue to rise at their current pace, the heat and humidity would be so high in some areas of South Asia by the end of the century that people directly exposed for six hours or more would not survive.

Indeed, researchers say, if nothing is done to combat climate change, we could see big increases in the number of deaths caused by heat waves. A study last month projected a fivefold increase in heat-related deaths in the U.S. by 2080. The outlook for less wealthy countries is worse; in the Philippines, for example, researchers forecast 12 times more deaths.

Scientists aren’t worried just about heat waves getting worse though. Global warming can intensify other extreme weather events as well, including wildfires, droughts, and hurricanes, according to a 2014 report by the National Climate Assessment. 

That means, scientists warn, we could see more monster storms like Florence, which pummeled the Carolinas in September with record amounts of rainfall; more-intense wildfires, like those that have burned record amounts of land in California this year; and more-extreme droughts, like the ones in Britain this year, which have led to a five-year low in wheat yields, and those that devastated parts of El Salvador this summer, leaving farmers whose livelihoods depend on their corn harvests staring in dismay at their failed crops.

A study published in the journal Science Advances in 2017 found that if temperatures continue to rise at their current pace, the heat and humidity would be so high in some areas of South Asia by the end of the century that people directly exposed for six hours or more would not survive.

Indeed, researchers say we could see big increases in the number of deaths caused by heat waves. That is, if nothing is done to combat climate change. A study last month projected a fivefold increase in heat-related deaths in the U.S. by 2080. The outlook for less wealthy countries is worse. In the Philippines, for example, researchers forecast 12 times more deaths.

Scientists aren’t worried just about heat waves getting worse though. Global warming can intensify other extreme weather events as well, according to a 2014 report by the National Climate Assessment. That includes wildfires, droughts, and hurricanes. 

Scientists warn that we could see more devastation from weather. That means there might be more monster storms like Florence, which crushed the Carolinas in September with record amounts of rainfall. More-intense wildfires will blaze, like those that have burned record amounts of land in California this year. And there could be more-extreme droughts, like the ones in Britain this year, which have led to a five-year low in wheat yields. Severe droughts also devastated parts of El Salvador this summer, leaving farmers whose livelihoods depend on their corn harvests staring in dismay at their failed crops.

The effects of climate change are expected to be worse in poorer countries, partly because they don’t have the money and infrastructure necessary to deal with extreme heat waves. According to a 2018 study by the World Bank, climate change could sharply diminish living conditions for up to 800 million people across South Asia, one of the world’s poorest regions.

In India, where summer heat waves have become commonplace, 66 million Indians live in extreme poverty (about 5 percent of India’s total population of 1.4 billion). More than 200 million citizens don’t have access to electricity, and untold numbers of others couldn’t afford air conditioning even if they did.

Kamal, a woman who lives in India’s largest city, Delhi, says that “only by 4 a.m., when it cools down, can we sleep.” Her husband, a day laborer, suffered heatstroke this year, missed a week’s work and, with it, a week’s pay.

Across town, construction workers this summer said they faced so many ailments, including skin rash, dry mouth, nausea, and headaches, that every 10 to 15 days, they had to skip a day of work and lose a day’s wages.

Meanwhile, paramedics in neighboring Pakistan struggled to treat scores of heatstroke victims as temperatures in the rural farming town of Nawabshah soared as high as 122 degrees in April. Hospitals and clinics were overrun with patients, and there weren’t enough beds or medical staff.

“We tried our best to provide medical treatment,” says Raees Jamali, a paramedic. “But because of the severity of the heat, there was unexpected rush and it was really difficult to deal with all patients.”

Local governments are trying to find ways to help people cope with the heat. In Ahmedabad, India, city-funded vans distribute free water during the hottest months. The government has also slathered white reflective paint over several thousand tin-roofed shanties, bringing down indoor temperatures.

These short-term solutions are necessary, says Sujata Saunik, who served as a senior official in the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs and is now a fellow at the Harvard University School of Public Health. Otherwise, she says, “these cities are going to become unlivable.”

The effects of climate change are expected to be worse in poorer countries. That’s partly because they don’t have the money and infrastructure necessary to deal with extreme heat waves.

According to a 2018 study by the World Bank, climate change could sharply diminish living conditions for up to 800 million people across South Asia. That region is home to the world’s largest population of people living in poverty.

In India, summer heat waves have become commonplace. Sixty-six million Indians live in extreme poverty. That’s about 5 percent of India’s total population of 1.4 billion. More than 200 million citizens don’t have access to electricity, and untold numbers of others couldn’t afford air conditioning even if they did. 

Kamal, a woman who lives in India’s largest city, Delhi, says that “only by 4 a.m., when it cools down, can we sleep.” Her husband, a day laborer, suffered heatstroke this year, missed a week’s work and, with it, a week’s pay.

Across town, construction workers this summer said they faced many ailments. They suffered from things like skin rashes, dry mouth, nausea, and headaches. It was so bad that every 10 to 15 days, they had to skip a day of work and lose a day’s wages.

Meanwhile, paramedics in neighboring Pakistan struggled to treat scores of heatstroke victims. There, temperatures in the rural farming town of Nawabshah soared as high as 122 degrees in April. The town’s hospitals and clinics were overrun with patients, and there weren’t enough beds or medical staff.

“We tried our best to provide medical treatment,” says Raees Jamali, a  paramedic. “But because of the severity of the heat, there was unexpected rush and it was really difficult to deal with all patients.” 

Local governments are trying to find ways to help people cope with the heat. In Ahmedabad, India, city-funded vans pass out free water during the hottest months. The government has also brushed white reflective paint over several thousand tin-roofed shanties. That’s helped bring down indoor temperatures.

These short-term solutions are necessary, says Sujata Saunik, who served as a senior official in the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs and is now a fellow at the Harvard University School of Public Health. Otherwise, she says, “these cities are going to become unlivable.”

As for a long-term solution to climate change: In 2015, world leaders from more than 170 countries signed the Paris Accord, committing to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The goal of the agreement is to keep the planet’s average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. If that happens, many scientists say, the worst consequences of climate change could still be avoided.

However, the U.S. has since announced that it would be pulling out of the accord in 2020, the soonest any country can drop out (see “The U.S. & Climate Change,” below). And many of the world’s biggest polluters, including China and the U.S., aren’t on track to meet the reduction targets they set for themselves. Industrial emissions of carbon dioxide grew to record levels in 2017, after holding steady the previous three years. In 2017, carbon in the atmosphere was found to be at the highest levels in 800,000 years.

There’s been some movement on finding a long-term solution to climate change, too. In 2015, world leaders from more than 170 countries signed the Paris Accord. The deal made each country commit to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The goal of the agreement is to keep the planet’s average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. If that happens, many scientists say, the worst consequences of climate change could still be avoided.

However, the U.S. has since announced that it would be pulling out of the accord in 2020. That’s the soonest year any country can drop out (see “The U.S. & Climate Change”). And many of the world’s biggest polluters, including China and the U.S., aren’t on track to meet the reduction targets they set for themselves. Industrial emissions of carbon dioxide grew to record levels in 2017. And that’s after they held steady the previous three years. In 2017, carbon in the atmosphere was found to be at the highest levels in 800,000 years. 

Still, scientists point out that with significant reductions in emissions and major changes to the way we live—things like taking public transportation or carpooling more often—the warming can be slowed.

But many experts fear time is running out. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, says the heat waves we saw this summer are only the beginning of a dangerous shift in Earth’s temperature, which is only going to get worse.  

“We haven’t reached a new normal,” he says. “This isn’t a plateau.”

Still, scientists point out that the warming can be slowed. For this to happen, there will have to be significant reductions in emissions. We’ll also have to make major changes to the way we live, including things like taking public transportation or carpooling more often.

But many experts fear time is running out. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, says the heat waves we saw this summer are only the beginning of a dangerous shift in Earth’s temperature, which is only going to get worse.

“We haven’t reached a new normal,” he says. “This isn’t a plateau.”

With reporting by Somini Sengupta, Tiffany May, Zia ur-Rehman, Brad Plumer, and Henry Fountain of The New York Times.

With reporting by Somini Sengupta, Tiffany May, Zia ur-Rehman, Brad Plumer, and Henry Fountain of The New York Times.