Is America’s Longest War Coming to an End?

On February 29, the United States signed a peace agreement with the Taliban aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan, which has been going on for more than 18 years.

The U.S. has agreed to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan in exchange for assurances by the Taliban that it won’t provide sanctuary for terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. The agreement—which was signed in Doha, Qatar—doesn’t include the U.S.-backed Afghanistan government and is not a final peace deal.

But it’s seen as a major step toward negotiating a more sweeping pact that some hope could eventually end the insurgency of the Taliban, the militant group that once ruled Afghanistan under a brutal version of Islamic law.

The deal also hinges on more difficult negotiations to come between the Taliban and the Afghan government over the country’s future. Officials hope those talks will produce a power-sharing arrangement and lasting cease-fire.

“I really believe the Taliban wants to do something to show that we’re not all wasting time,” President Trump said in Washington hours after the agreement had been signed. “If bad things happen, we’ll go back.”

Here’s a look at how the U.S. got involved with Afghanistan and what the deal might mean for the future.

On February 29, the United States signed a peace agreement with the Taliban. The deal was aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan, which has been going on for more than 18 years.

The U.S. has agreed to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan. In exchange, the Taliban has promised that it won’t provide sanctuary for terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. Both parties signed the agreement in Doha, Qatar. It doesn’t include the U.S.-backed Afghanistan government and is not a final peace deal.

But it’s seen as a major step toward negotiating a more sweeping pact. Some hope that could eventually end the insurgency of the Taliban, the militant group that once ruled Afghanistan under a brutal version of Islamic law.

The deal also depends on more difficult negotiations to come between the Taliban and the Afghan government over the country’s future. Officials hope those talks will produce a power-sharing arrangement and lasting cease-fire.

“I really believe the Taliban wants to do something to show that we’re not all wasting time,” President Trump said in Washington hours after the agreement had been signed. “If bad things happen, we’ll go back.”

Here’s a look at how the U.S. got involved with Afghanistan and what
the deal might mean for the future.

Afghanistan has essentially been at war for more than 40 years. The fighting and instability began with the Soviet invasion of the country in 1979 (see timeline, below). After years of civil war, the Taliban, an extremist group with a very rigid interpretation of how Islam should be practiced, took control in 1996.

Life under the Taliban was hard. They persecuted the country’s few religious minorities. They banned music and TV. They required men to grow beards. But it was women who fared the worst. Girls older than 8 were prohibited from going to school. Women were barred from most jobs and told they must wear a burqa (a cloak covering them from head to toe) when they left their houses.

The U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001, in response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, in which nearly 3,000 people were killed. The goal was to capture the Al Qaeda terrorists who were responsible for 9/11 and to destroy the radical Taliban regime that had given the terrorists safe haven in Afghanistan.

The U.S. and its allies quickly ousted the Taliban and helped set up a new Afghan government. But many of the Taliban retreated into the Afghan countryside and regrouped as insurgent fighters, carrying out deadly terrorist attacks. The U.S.-backed Afghan government and American forces have been battling them ever since.

Afghanistan has essentially been at war for more than 40 years. The fighting and instability began with the Soviet invasion of the country in 1979 (see timeline, below). After years of civil war, the Taliban took control in 1996.

The Taliban is an extremist group with a very rigid interpretation of how Islam should be practiced. Life under their rule was hard. They persecuted the country’s few religious minorities. They banned music and TV. They required men to grow beards. But it was women who suffered worst. Girls older than 8 were banned from going to school. Women were barred from most jobs and told they must wear a burqa (a cloak covering them from head to toe) when they left their houses.

The U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001, in response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. Nearly 3,000 people were killed in those attacks. The goal was to capture the Al Qaeda terrorists who were responsible for 9/11 and to destroy the radical Taliban regime that had given the terrorists safe haven in Afghanistan.

The U.S. and its allies quickly ousted the Taliban and helped set up a new Afghan government. But many of the Taliban retreated into the Afghan countryside. There, they regrouped as insurgent fighters and carried out deadly terrorist attacks. The U.S.-backed Afghan government and American forces have been battling them ever since.

The conflict in Afghanistan, now in its 19th year, is the longest war the U.S. has ever fought. Part of the problem was that the U.S. got distracted by launching a second war, in Iraq. In May 2003, when a major reconstruction effort was still under way in Afghanistan, the U.S. began shifting combat resources to Iraq. That helped the Taliban insurgency to grow stronger over the next few years.

But the other reason has to do with the nature of a fight between a superpower and an insurgency. “Insurgencies tend to last a long time,” says Stephen Biddle, an Afghanistan expert at Columbia University. “What they typically try to do is draw the war out with lower-scale chronic violence over a long time and hope to wear down their adversaries.”

That’s essentially what has happened. Over the course of the conflict, more than 2,300 Americans have died in Afghanistan and an additional 20,000 have been wounded. The war has cost about $2 trillion.

The conflict in Afghanistan is now in its 19th year. It’s the longest war the U.S. has ever fought. Part of the problem was that the U.S. got distracted by launching a second war, in Iraq. In May 2003, when a major reconstruction effort was still under way in Afghanistan, the U.S. began shifting combat resources to Iraq. That helped the Taliban insurgency to grow stronger over the next few years.

But the other reason has to do with the nature of a fight between a superpower and an insurgency.

“Insurgencies tend to last a long time,” says Stephen Biddle, an Afghanistan expert at Columbia University. “What they typically try to do is draw the war out with lower-scale chronic violence over a long time and hope to wear down their adversaries.”

That’s essentially what has happened. Over the course of the conflict, more than 2,300 Americans have died in Afghanistan and an additional 20,000 have been wounded. The war has cost about $2 trillion.

Right now, the U.S. has about 12,000 troops in Afghanistan, down from about 100,000 at the peak of the war nearly a decade ago after then-President Barack Obama ordered a troop surge. The American troops are supported by several thousand others from NATO allies.

The U.S. has agreed to a gradual withdrawal of troops over 14 months, depending on conditions on the ground and the ability of the Afghan government and the Taliban to make progress in talks. About 5,000 troops are supposed to leave by mid-July.

The departure of American troops from Afghanistan is a top priority for the Taliban—and for President Trump, who campaigned on ending the war. In fact, some experts say the entire framework of the peace plan is designed to allow the graceful withdrawal of U.S. troops.

“The deal is a kind of window dressing for a withdrawal,” says Colin Clarke, an Afghanistan expert at the Rand Corporation, a government policy think tank.

Right now, the U.S. has about 12,000 troops in Afghanistan. That’s down from about 100,000 at the peak of the war nearly a decade ago. At that time, then-President Barack Obama ordered a troop surge. The American troops are supported by several thousand others from NATO allies.

The U.S. has agreed to a gradual withdrawal of troops over 14 months. That will depend on conditions on the ground and the ability of the Afghan government and the Taliban to make progress in talks. About 5,000 troops are supposed to leave by mid-July.

The departure of American troops from Afghanistan is a top priority for the Taliban. It’s also key for President Trump, who campaigned on ending the war. In fact, some experts say the entire framework of the peace plan is designed to allow the graceful withdrawal of U.S. troops.

“The deal is a kind of window dressing for a withdrawal,” says Colin Clarke, an Afghanistan expert at the Rand Corporation, a government policy think tank.

Over the past two decades, the U.S. has spent billions on reconstruction in Afghanistan, and by many measures, life has improved enormously. Infant mortality has declined. The number of children in school has soared. The economy is nearly five times larger. Several national elections have been held for president and parliament, bringing democracy to a nation that had never known it.

Now there are fears that all those gains might be in jeopardy (See “What About Afghan Women?” below). Afghans are grappling with whether the deal the Americans signed might be a first step toward a lasting peace or a plunge back into a time when extremists could again dominate society and governing.

“It is unclear how the Taliban, who fought for 18 years for their own ideology, can suddenly give up their anti-democracy and anti-women’s-rights values,” says Marzia Rustami, a women’s rights activist in Kunduz Province, in northern Afghanistan. “We do not want to go back to what we were doing during the Taliban regime.”

Many experts predict that without the support of American troops and money, Afghanistan’s national defense forces will collapse, and the Taliban could simply take over most of the country militarily.

Over the past two decades, the U.S. has spent billions on reconstruction in Afghanistan. By many measures, life has really improved. Infant mortality has declined. The number of children in school has soared. The economy is nearly five times larger. Several national elections have been held for president and parliament. That’s brought democracy to a nation that had never known it.

Now there are fears that all those gains might be at risk (See “What About Afghan Women?” below). Afghans are grappling with whether the deal the Americans signed might be a first step toward a lasting peace or a plunge back into a time when extremists could again dominate society and governing.

“It is unclear how the Taliban, who fought for 18 years for their own ideology, can suddenly give up their anti-democracy and anti-women’s-rights values,” says Marzia Rustami, a women’s rights activist in Kunduz Province, in northern Afghanistan. “We do not want to go back to what we were doing during the Taliban regime.”

Many experts predict that without the support of American troops and money, Afghanistan’s national defense forces will collapse. That could leave an opening for the Taliban to take over most of the country militarily.

Peace depends on a power-sharing deal being worked out between the Taliban and the Afghan government. But as soon as the U.S.-Taliban deal was signed, stumbling blocks began to emerge. The Afghan government initially refused to release Taliban prisoners before talks start, and the Taliban ramped up attacks on Afghan officials and civilians.

“The odds of this breaking down or coming to gridlock are significant,” says Douglas Lute, a former U.S. Army general who served in Afghanistan.

Yet Afghanistan has been so scarred by violence—tens of thousands of civilians killed, a generation of women widowed, the security forces barely able to recruit enough to replace those killed—that even a vague prospect of peace is welcome.

Like many Afghans, Jan Mohammad, a taxi driver in Kandahar, is cautiously optimistic about the deal despite the uncertainties that lie ahead.

“If we have long and permanent peace,” he says, “we will be saving the nation.”

Peace depends on a power-sharing deal being worked out between the Taliban and the Afghan government. But as soon as the U.S.-Taliban deal was signed, stumbling blocks began to emerge. The Afghan government initially refused to release Taliban prisoners before talks start. In return, the Taliban ramped up attacks on Afghan officials and civilians.

“The odds of this breaking down or coming to gridlock are significant,” says Douglas Lute, a former U.S. Army general who served in Afghanistan.

Yet even a vague possibility of peace is welcome to many Afghans. That’s because the country has been so scarred by violence. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed. A generation of women have been widowed. And the nation’s security forces can barely recruit enough to replace those killed.

Jan Mohammad is a taxi driver in Kandahar. Like many Afghans, he is cautiously optimistic about the deal despite the uncertainties that lie ahead.

“If we have long and permanent peace,” he says, “we will be saving
the nation.”

With reporting by Lara Jakes, Fatima Faizi, Najim Rahim, Mujib Mashal, and David E. Sanger of The New York Times.

With reporting by Lara Jakes, Fatima Faizi, Najim Rahim, Mujib Mashal, and David E. Sanger of The New York Times.