What’s at Stake

It’s a moment without precedent in American history. A deadly virus that has killed more than 150,000 people in the U.S. alone has turned life upside down, thrown millions of Americans out of work, and left the worst economic devastation since the Great Depression. On top of that, a vast outpouring of anger and despair nationwide over the killing of a Black man in police custody last spring has led to the most massive social protest movement in at least half a century.

This is the environment in which Americans will cast ballots in the November presidential election to decide who will lead the nation during the next four years: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden.

“Every four years, we hear people say this is the most important election of our lifetime. Normally, it isn’t true. This time it is,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “The stakes are enormous, and the two pathways could not be more different.”

President Trump came to the Oval Office promising to use his experience as a businessman to disrupt business as usual in Washington and “make America great again.” In an effort to boost the economy, he’s overseen a massive rollback of environmental and other government regulations. He has cracked down on illegal immigration and reduced the number of immigrants legally entering the country. And he’s disrupted relations with America’s longtime allies with his “America first” approach to foreign policy.

We’re living in a moment that’s unlike any other time in American history. A deadly virus that has killed more than 150,000 people in the U.S. alone has turned life upside down. It’s thrown millions of Americans out of work. And we’re experiencing the worst economic devastation since the Great Depression. On top of that, there’s been a huge outpouring of anger and despair nationwide over the killing of a Black man in police custody last spring. In fact, it’s led to the most massive social protest movement in at least half a century.

This is the environment in which Americans will cast ballots in the November presidential election. Their votes will decide who will lead the nation during the next four years: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden.

“Every four years, we hear people say this is the most important election of our lifetime. Normally, it isn’t true. This time it is,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “The stakes are enormous, and the two pathways could not be more different.”

President Trump came to the Oval Office promising to use his experience as a businessman to disrupt business as usual in Washington. He said that he would help “make America great again.” He’s launched a massive rollback of environmental and other government regulations, trying to boost the economy. He has cracked down on illegal immigration and reduced the number of immigrants legally entering the country. And he’s harmed relations with America’s longtime allies with his “America first” approach to foreign policy.

Biden is offering voters a return to a more traditional presidency. He was a U.S. senator for 36 years and developed a reputation for compromising with Republicans to pass legislation. In 2009, he became vice president under President Barack Obama, serving in that role for eight years. He supports immigrant rights, believes climate change is a global emergency, and thinks America’s international partnerships are critical

In fact, on every major issue facing the nation—response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy, racial inequality, immigration, climate change, the Supreme Court, international relations, and many more—Trump’s and Biden’s positions are miles apart (see “Where They Stand,” below).

“In our lifetimes, I don’t think there’s been a greater contrast between the candidates,” says Norman Ornstein, a political expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

Biden is offering voters a return to a more traditional presidency. He was a U.S. senator for 36 years. Over time, he’s developed a reputation for compromising with Republicans to pass legislation. In 2009, he became vice president under President Barack Obama. He served in that role for eight years. He supports immigrant rights and believes climate change is a global emergency. He also thinks America’s international partnerships are critical.

There are major issues facing the nation. They include the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy, racial inequality, immigration, climate change, the Supreme Court, and international relations. On all of these points, Trump’s and Biden’s positions are miles apart (see “Where They Stand,” facing page).

“In our lifetimes, I don’t think there’s been a greater contrast between the candidates,” says Norman Ornstein, a political expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

Trump’s presidency has been one of the most controversial in modern memory. He has cast aside many traditions dictating how U.S. presidents act, using Twitter to harshly attack his critics and rouse his supporters. He has publicly feuded with American allies like Canada and Germany and been friendly toward autocratic adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He’s the first president in American history to be impeached and then seek re-election.

Trump’s overall approval rating has never cracked 50 percent, according to Gallup polls, but his supporters remain solidly behind him: In most polls throughout 2020, around 90 percent of Republicans have said they think he’s doing a good job on such issues as the economy, cutting government regulations, and cracking down on illegal immigration.

“He’s the best president we’ve ever had,” says Ryan Leonard, a 49-year-old real estate broker in Michigan and devoted Trump supporter.

Trump’s presidency has been one of the most controversial in modern memory. He has cast aside many traditions that shape how U.S. presidents act. He uses Twitter to harshly attack his critics and incite his supporters. He has publicly feuded with American allies like Canada and Germany. He has also been friendly toward autocratic adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. And he’s the first president in American history to be impeached and then seek re-election.

Trump’s overall approval rating has never gone above 50 percent, according to Gallup polls. But his supporters still remain solidly behind him. In most polls throughout 2020, around 90 percent of Republicans have said they think he’s doing a good job on issues like the economy, cutting government regulations, and cracking down on illegal immigration.

“He’s the best president we’ve ever had,” says Ryan Leonard, a 49-year-old real estate broker in Michigan and devoted Trump supporter.

To Democrats, however, Trump is the most dangerous president in the nation’s history and the need to win in November is dire. 

“In this moment of crisis, it’s more important than ever that the next president restores Americans’ faith in good, effective government,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts in her endorsement of Biden. She added, “We can’t afford to let Donald Trump continue to endanger the lives and livelihoods of every American.”

Biden’s supporters often speak of his kindness and compassion toward those who are suffering. And they say his years of government experience will help him direct federal resources to those in need.

Still, some Democratic voters—especially younger ones—have been lukewarm in their support for Biden, who isn’t known for inspiring his supporters with stirring speeches or bold visions of the future. If he wins, Biden, at 77, would be by far the oldest man ever to become president. (That record is now held by Trump, who was 70 when he took office in 2017.)

But Democrats consider Trump the most dangerous president in the nation’s history. For them, the need to win in November is urgent.

“In this moment of crisis, it’s more important than ever that the next president restores Americans’ faith in good, effective government,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts in her endorsement of Biden. She added, “We can’t afford to let Donald Trump continue to endanger the lives and livelihoods of every American.”

Biden’s supporters often speak of his kindness and compassion toward those who are suffering. And they say his years of government experience will help him direct federal resources to those in need.

Still, Biden is 77 years old and not known for his charisma or fresh ideas. That’s turned off some Democratic voters, especially younger ones. If he wins, he would be by far the oldest man ever to become president. (That record is now held by Trump, who was 70 when he took the presidential oath in 2017.)

Whoever is president will face the task of reviving a devastated economy while overseeing a national response to a once-in-a-century pandemic. At the same time, he will lead a nation that has been reeling over the killing of George Floyd, a Black man, by a white police officer in Minneapolis. Floyd’s death outraged millions of Americans of all races, prompting widespread protests against police violence toward Black Americans and the broader problem of racial injustice.

“I lived through the ’60s and Vietnam and Watergate and 9/11, and I don’t think any of those are as profound as this crisis,” says E.J. Dionne, a government expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

It’s not just that the issues facing the candidates are different this year; the entire process of campaigning and how the election will be conducted are also unprecedented. Widespread stay-at-home orders intended to slow the virus interrupted the day-to-day work of the campaigns over the spring and summer. President Trump was forced to suspend many large political rallies, though he remained in the public eye through regular White House briefings. Biden spent months in his Delaware home, largely out of sight.

Whoever is president will face some very difficult tasks. He will need to revive a devastated economy. He will also need to respond to a once-in-a-century pandemic. And that will all have to be done in a nation that has been reeling over the killing of George Floyd, a Black man, by a white police officer in Minneapolis. Floyd’s death outraged millions of Americans of all races. It led to widespread protests against police violence toward Black Americans and the broader problem of racial injustice.

“I lived through the ’60s and Vietnam and Watergate and 9/11, and I don’t think any of those are as profound as this crisis,” says E.J. Dionne, a government expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

The issues facing the candidates aren’t the only thing that’s different this year. The entire campaign process and how the election will be conducted are also unusual. Widespread stay-at-home orders intended to slow the virus were put into place across the U.S. That interrupted the day-to-day work of the campaigns over the spring and summer. President Trump was forced to suspend many large political rallies. He still remained in the public eye through regular White House briefings. Biden spent months in his Delaware home, largely out of sight.

Normally, political organizers spend the spring and summer before a presidential election on college campuses, in neighborhoods, and on the streets registering people to vote. All of that activity has been severely hampered this year because of social distancing guidelines put in place to stop the spread of Covid-19. Plus, many of the government offices where people can register to vote were closed in many states for long stretches in the past six months, creating an additional obstacle to registration.

With voters on both sides fired up about President Trump’s 2019 impeachment and feeling so strongly about him—either positively or negatively—many experts had been predicting record voter turnout this November. But now, with the pandemic, many worry that voters will have a tough time casting their ballots.

“There’s the potential for huge impact on voter turnout,” says Sabato, the political scientist.

Normally, political organizers spend the spring and summer before a presidential election on college campuses, in neighborhoods, and on the streets registering people to vote. All of that activity has been severely reduced this year by the social distancing guidelines put in place to stop the spread of Covid-19. Plus, many of the government offices where people can register to vote were closed in many states for long stretches in the past six months. The closures have created an extra obstacle to registration.

Voters on both sides have very strong feelings about President Trump’s 2019 impeachment. That initially led many experts to predict that there would be record voter turnout this November. But now, with the pandemic, many worry that voters will have a tough time casting their ballots.

“There’s the potential for huge impact on voter turnout,” says Sabato, the political scientist.

Historically, sitting presidents have a hard time winning re-election when the economy is in trouble. Before the pandemic shut down the U.S. economy, it had been very strong. But in the past six months, the economy has plummeted to lows not seen since the Great Depression. Will voters hold Trump responsible?

“Elections involving incumbents are often a referendum on the performance of the incumbent,” explains Dionne.

In this case, the public will judge Trump not only on the state of the economy but also on his leadership during a public health emergency and a nationwide movement for racial justice.

“This will be an election about who we are as a nation and how we grapple with the deadly legacy of racism,” Dionne says. “More than ever, we will be debating what America is, and who we want to be.”

But the critical issues in this election may also present huge opportunities for whoever the nation chooses in November, says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

“Elections in times of national crisis place challenges in front of whoever is the president,” she says. “When a president steps up in one of those moments, you get Lincoln in the Civil War, you get Roosevelt in World War II. This is one of those moments.”

Historically, sitting presidents have a hard time winning re-election when the economy is in trouble. Before the pandemic shut down the U.S. economy, it had been very strong. But in the past six months, the economy has sunk to lows not seen since the Great Depression. Will voters hold Trump responsible?

“Elections involving incumbents are often a referendum on the performance of the incumbent,” explains Dionne.

In this case, the public will also judge Trump on his leadership during a public health emergency and a nationwide movement for racial justice.

“This will be an election about who we are as a nation and how we grapple with the deadly legacy of racism,” Dionne says. “More than ever, we will be debating what America is, and who we want to be.”

But the critical issues in this election may also present huge opportunities for whoever the nation chooses in November, says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

“Elections in times of national crisis place challenges in front of whoever is the president,” she says. “When a president steps up in one of those moments, you get Lincoln in the Civil War, you get Roosevelt in World War II. This is one of those moments.”