An Election Like No Other

Given the uncertainty about when full results of the Nov. 3 election will be known, readers should check upfrontmagazine.com for the latest updates.

Rarely, if ever, have Americans voted in a presidential election under such volatile circumstances.

That’s the assessment of experts who cite voting amid a pandemic, more ballots being cast by mail than ever before, and a sitting president who has spent the months leading up to the election raising doubt about the process and whether he’ll accept the results.

“Everything involving this election is different,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “It’s not only unprecedented, it’s worrying.”

Since the Covid-19 pandemic turned the country upside down in March, election officials in many states have rushed to change rules and adapt voting procedures to make them safer. Many states have moved to make it easier to vote by mail, while also figuring out how to make in-person voting on November 3 safe, says Nate Persily of the Healthy Elections Project.

An enormous effort is underway to move polling locations—many of which have traditionally been set up in schools, nursing homes, and retirement communities—to safer places. Since most poll workers are over 60 and more vulnerable to Covid-19, a new legion of younger poll workers has had to be recruited. And election officials have had to buy enormous quantities of hand sanitizer, masks, and other equipment to keep officials and voters safe.

In nine states, ballots were being automatically mailed to all registered voters. In nine other states, voters are automatically receiving applications to request mail-in ballots. And in 36 states, voters can use the coronavirus as a reason to get an absentee ballot.

Rarely, if ever, have Americans voted under such difficult circumstances.

That’s what elections experts say. They cite several reasons. People will be voting amid a pandemic. There will be more ballots cast by mail than ever before. And the current president has spent the months leading up to the election raising doubt about the process and whether he’ll accept the results.

“Everything involving this election is different,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “It’s not only unprecedented, it’s worrying.”

The Covid-19 pandemic turned the country upside down in March. Since then, election officials in many states have rushed to change rules and adapt voting procedures to make them safer. Many states have moved to make it easier to vote by mail. These states have also been trying to figure out how to make in-person voting on November 3 safe, says Nate Persily of the Healthy Elections Project.

A massive effort is underway to move polling locations to safer places. In the past, many of these sites have been set up in schools, nursing homes, and retirement communities. Most poll workers are over 60 and more vulnerable to Covid-19. That’s why a new group of younger poll workers has had to be recruited. And election officials have had to buy huge quantities of hand sanitizer, masks, and other equipment.

In nine states, ballots were being automatically mailed to all registered voters. In nine other states, voters are automatically receiving applications to request mail-in ballots. And in 36 states, voters can use the coronavirus as a reason to get an absentee ballot.

These changes will mean that more Americans will vote by mail than ever before—perhaps as many as 70 million.

“Election officials are going to be overwhelmed in the processing and counting of these ballots,” Persily says.

The shift to more mail-in ballots will mean it will take much longer to tally the results. It could be weeks before everything is counted.

“We’re used to election night satisfaction as to what’s happened,” says Rob Richie, head of FairVote, a nonpartisan election reform group. “If it’s at all close, we won’t be able to have that this year.”

Richie explains that it may even look like one candidate has won a particular state based on the in-person voting results on Election Day, only to discover days or weeks later, after all the mail-in votes are tallied, that the other candidate has pulled ahead. In a recent poll, half of Democrats said they plan to vote by mail, compared with a quarter of Republicans.

These changes will mean that more Americans will vote by mail than ever before. In fact, as many as 70 million might mail their ballots.

“Election officials are going to be overwhelmed in the processing and counting of these ballots,” Persily says.

The shift to more mail-in ballots will mean it will take much longer to tally the results. It could be weeks before everything is counted.

“We’re used to election night satisfaction as to what’s happened,” says Rob Richie, head of FairVote, a nonpartisan election reform group. “If it’s at all close, we won’t be able to have that this year.”

Richie explains that it may even look like one candidate has won a specific state based on the in-person voting results on Election Day. But, he adds, things could change after all the mail-in votes are counted. Days or weeks later, the nation could discover that the other candidate has pulled ahead.

In a recent poll, half of Democrats said they plan to vote by mail, compared with a quarter of Republicans.

While this wouldn’t be the first presidential election in which it took a while to declare a winner (see “And the Winner Is...,” below), the circumstances this year have many political scientists and election observers deeply concerned.

The American public is perhaps more polarized than ever before, and many voters on both sides of the political spectrum see the presidential race as being of existential importance for the future of the country. President Trump has even hinted that he might refuse to accept the results. (Both the Trump and Biden campaigns have assembled large legal teams ready for potential court fights over voting and results.)

“The only way we’re going to lose this election is if this election is rigged,” Trump told supporters in August.

The president has repeatedly claimed that mail-in voting will increase voter fraud—a claim that experts say has no basis in fact. He has accused Democrats of “using Covid to steal an election.” And when asked, he’s refused to say he will accept the election results.

“He’s strategically planting doubts in advance to try to undermine people’s confidence in the election,” former Vice President Al Gore, a Democrat, told Reuters.

This wouldn’t be the first presidential election in which it took a while to declare a winner (see “And the Winner Is...,” below). Still, the circumstances this year have many political scientists and election observers deeply concerned.

The American public is perhaps more divided than ever before. Many voters on both sides of the political spectrum feel that this presidential race is important to the country’s future. President Trump has even hinted that he might refuse to accept the results. The Trump and Biden campaigns are ready to tackle any fallout over voting and results. Both sides have put together large legal teams for potential court fights.

“The only way we’re going to lose this election is if this election is rigged,” Trump told supporters in August.

The president has repeatedly claimed that mail-in voting will increase voter fraud. Experts maintain that his claim has no basis in fact. He has accused Democrats of “using Covid to steal an election.” And when asked, he’s refused to say he will accept the election results.

“He’s strategically planting doubts in advance to try to undermine people’s confidence in the election,” former Vice President Al Gore, a Democrat, told Reuters

Some Republicans have indicated uneasiness with Trump’s attacks on the voting system.

“As we have done for over two centuries we will have a legitimate & fair election,” Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, tweeted. “It may take longer than usual to know the outcome, but it will be a valid one.”

Confidence in the election process is critical for people to accept the results—especially in an election where it may take a while to figure out the winner.

“I hope we have an outcome that the great mass of America accepts,” Richie says, “and it’s clear enough that the loser accepts the results.”

Some Republicans have expressed uneasiness with Trump’s attacks on the voting system.

“As we have done for over two centuries, we will have a legitimate & fair election,” Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, tweeted. “It may take longer than usual to know the outcome, but it will be a valid one.”

Confidence in the election process is critical for people to accept the results. That’s even more important in an election where it may take a while to figure out the winner.

“I hope we have an outcome that the great mass of America accepts,” Richie says, “and it’s clear enough that the loser accepts the results.”