Could Young Voters Decide the Presidency?

Cora Martin spends 15 to 20 hours a week reaching out to fellow students at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Joining them in their Zoom classes, she makes five-minute pitches about registering to vote and requesting a mail-in ballot.

She also has made hundreds of calls to people under 25, who don’t usually get tapped by other voter outreach groups. And everywhere she goes, she spreads her message about the importance of voting.

“I can’t imagine not wanting to devote all my time to this election,” says Martin, a 20-year-old sophomore, who does all this work for NextGen America, a youth voter mobilization group.

Martin is part of a small army of young volunteers that NextGen America has deployed to 11 battleground states—the ones most likely to decide the election—to register young people and make sure they cast ballots.

Cora Martin spends 15 to 20 hours a week getting other young people ready for the November election. Most of her work involves reaching out to fellow students at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. She connects with them in their Zoom classes. In those sessions, she makes five-minute pitches about registering to vote and requesting a mail-in ballot.

She also has made hundreds of calls to people under 25, who don’t usually get tapped by other voter outreach groups. And everywhere she goes, she spreads her message about the importance of voting.

“I can’t imagine not wanting to devote all my time to this election,” says Martin, a 20-year-old sophomore. She does all this work for NextGen America, a youth voter mobilization group.

Martin is part of a small army of young volunteers. NextGen America has positioned them in 11 battleground states. Those states are the ones most likely to decide the election. There, these youth volunteers work to register young people and make sure they cast ballots.

The 26th Amendment lowered the voting age to 18 in 1971, but America’s youngest voters have usually exercised their constitutional right to vote at lower rates than older Americans. In the 2016 presidential election, only 43 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted, compared with the overall turnout rate of 60 percent.

But those who track youth voter turnout are wondering if this year might be different because of a combination of factors: the massive number of young people who’ve turned 18 in the past four years; the intensity of emotion surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic and the racial justice movement spurred by the killing of George Floyd; and the high stakes of this election.

Could young people, in fact, make the difference in who wins?

“Youth groups have mobilized like mad this year,” says Abby Kiesa of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University in Massachusetts. “And 15 million young people have turned 18 since the last presidential election. When you look at margins of victory in recent elections, it’s a giant number.”

Another reason to be optimistic about youth voter turnout this year, Kiesa says, is that the 2018 midterm election saw a record increase in youth turnout: The percentage of 18- to 29-year-olds who voted in 2018 was 31 percent, more than double the 13 percent who voted in the previous midterm. (Turnout for all age groups is usually lower in midterms than in presidential elections.)

There are signs that young people are more engaged in this election cycle. A poll conducted by CIRCLE and Gallup in July found that 79 percent of young people say the coronavirus pandemic has made them realize how much political leaders’ decisions can affect their lives. And 70 percent said they’ve talked with their friends about politics.

The 26th Amendment lowered the voting age to 18 in 1971. But America’s youngest voters have usually exercised their constitutional right to vote at lower rates than older Americans. In the 2016 presidential election, only 43 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted. That’s compared with the overall turnout rate of 60 percent.

But those who track youth voter turnout are wondering if this year might be different. That’s because there are a combination of factors happening at this moment. There’s a massive number of young people who’ve turned 18 in the past four years. The Covid-19 pandemic and the racial justice movement spurred by the killing of George Floyd have also led to intense emotions. And this election has such high stakes.

Could young people, in fact, make the difference in who wins?

“Youth groups have mobilized like mad this year,” says Abby Kiesa of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University in Massachusetts. “And 15 million young people have turned 18 since the last presidential election. When you look at margins of victory in recent elections, it’s a giant number.”

Kiesa points out another reason to be optimistic about youth voter turnout this year: The 2018 midterm election saw a record increase in youth turnout. The percentage of 18- to 29-year-olds who voted in 2018 was 31 percent. That was more than double the 13 percent who voted in the previous midterm. Turnout for all age groups is usually lower in midterms than in presidential elections.

There are signs that young people are more engaged in this election cycle. A poll conducted by CIRCLE and Gallup in July found that 79 percent of young people say the coronavirus pandemic has made them realize how much political leaders’ decisions can affect their lives. And 70 percent said they’ve talked with their friends about politics.

More than half the U.S. population is now Millennials (24- to 39-year-olds) or younger, according to a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution.* Generation Z voters—18- to 23-year-olds—are projected to be 10 percent of the electorate this year, up from 4 percent in 2016, according to a Pew Research Center study from earlier this year. The potential influence of younger voters becomes more apparent when analysts include Millennials along with Gen Z voters.

“Together, Gen Z and Millennials make up the largest voting bloc—37 percent of the electorate,” says Jesse Barba of Young Invincibles, a youth voting and political advocacy group. “This election is theirs to own. The question is: Will they turn out?”

It’s a question with an uncertain answer. For all their enthusiasm, young people who want to vote are facing huge obstacles this year (see “An Election Like No Other” ). Many have never voted before, and even those who have voted may be unfamiliar with how to vote by mail. Normally, youth groups would hold voter registration events on college campuses. Covid-19 has forced the suspension of in-person voter registration and voter education efforts. Now, all that outreach is digital: Groups are emailing, texting, and using social media—and hoping this approach works.

Despite the obstacles, Barba is optimistic that this is the year that youth turnout will take off. “Young people have carried that same enthusiasm [from 2018] into 2020,” he says. “The crisis of a global pandemic and a movement for racial justice have only cemented that enthusiasm.”

More than half the U.S. population is now Millennials (24- to 39-year-olds) or younger, according to a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution. Generation Z voters (18- to 23-year-olds) are projected to be 10 percent of the electorate this year, up from 4 percent in 2016, according to a Pew Research Center study from earlier this year. The potential influence of younger voters becomes more apparent when analysts include Millennials along with Gen Z voters.

“Together, Gen Z and Millennials make up the largest voting bloc—37 percent of the electorate,” says Jesse Barba of Young Invincibles, a youth voting and political advocacy group. “This election is theirs to own. The question is: Will they turn out?”

It’s a question with an uncertain answer. For all their enthusiasm, young people who want to vote are facing huge obstacles this year (see “An Election Like No Other”). Many have never voted before, and even those who have voted may not know how to vote by mail. Normally, youth groups would hold voter registration events on college campuses. Covid-19 has made having in-person voter registration and voter education efforts impossible. Now, all that outreach is digital: Groups are emailing, texting, and using social media. They’re hoping this approach works.

Despite the obstacles, Barba is optimistic that this is the year that youth turnout will take off. “Young people have carried that same enthusiasm [from 2018] into 2020,” he says. “The crisis of a global pandemic and a movement for racial justice have only cemented that enthusiasm.”

But John Holbein, who studies youth voting trends at the University of Virginia, is much more pessimistic about turnout rates going up this year.

“With voting rules ever changing, and with schools not doing voter registration drives as much as they normally would, there’s a good chance we might actually see lower levels of youth voter turnout,” Holbein says. “The things that stop young people from voting haven’t changed; if anything, they’ve gotten worse.”

Whether youth voter turnout increases or not, experts agree that casting a first ballot is important because it increases the likelihood of getting into the civic habit of voting regularly.

Joseph Puati, a senior at Cinco Ranch High School in Katy, Texas, won’t turn 18 until Election Day, but he’s already registered and planning to vote. His parents came to the U.S. from Angola, and he’s the only citizen in his family, so being able to cast a ballot has extra meaning.

“The events of the summer have really energized me to vote,” Puati says. “It feels really good to know that I’ll have a say.”

But John Holbein, who studies youth voting trends at the University of Virginia, is much more pessimistic about turnout rates going up this year.

“With voting rules ever changing, and with schools not doing voter registration drives as much as they normally would, there’s a good chance we might actually see lower levels of youth voter turnout,” Holbein says. “The things that stop young people from voting haven’t changed; if anything, they’ve gotten worse.”

Whether youth voter turnout increases or not, experts agree that casting a first ballot is important. They say that it increases the likelihood of getting into the civic habit of voting regularly.

Joseph Puati is a senior at Cinco Ranch High School in Katy, Texas. He won’t turn 18 until Election Day, but he’s already registered and planning to vote. His parents came to the U.S. from Angola. He’s actually the only citizen in his family. That’s why being able to cast a ballot has extra meaning for him.

“The events of the summer have really energized me to vote,” Puati says. “It feels really good to know that I’ll have a say.”