Taiwan’s Uncertain Future

Like most people in Taiwan, 16-year-old Wei-Yu Lu has repeatedly been reminded in recent months that his freedom is in peril. For several days in early October, dozens of Chinese fighter jets invaded Taiwan’s air space—a deliberate provocation and a clear signal that China has never recognized the island as a separate territory. A month earlier, the Chinese military conducted an exercise—with warships firing into the sea and landing vehicles sweeping onto a beach—to simulate an invasion of Taiwan.

Lu, an 11th-grader at the High School of National Taiwan Normal University in the capital city of Taipei, sees these events and other aggressive moves by China as deeply worrying.

“To be honest, I am really concerned about the future of Taiwan,” he says. If his homeland came under the control of the Communist government in Beijing for the first time ever, he adds, “Taiwan would definitely lose the democracy and autonomy we have.”

In recent months, people in Taiwan have been reminded that their freedom is in peril. Among them is 16-year-old Wei-Yu Lu. For several days in early October, dozens of Chinese fighter jets invaded Taiwan’s air space. It was a clear signal that China has never recognized the island as a separate territory. A month earlier, the Chinese military simulated an invasion of Taiwan. During the exercise, Chinese warships fired into the sea and military vehicles swept onto a beach.

Lu is an 11th-grader at the High School of National Taiwan Normal University in the capital city of Taipei. He sees these events and other aggressive moves by China as deeply worrying.

“To be honest, I am really concerned about the future of Taiwan,” he says. If his homeland came under the control of the Communist government in Beijing for the first time ever, he adds, “Taiwan would definitely lose the democracy and autonomy we have.”

Taiwan is a democratic self-governed island of 24 million people that lies 100 miles off the coast of mainland China. Since 1949, Taiwan has essentially operated as a separate nation; it has its own elections, military, and currency, but it has never formally declared itself an independent country. Chinese leaders continue to claim that Taiwan is part of China. And recently, China has stepped up its rhetoric against what it sees as a breakaway province and warned that it would respond with force to any declaration of independence.

“Relations between China and Taiwan are at their worst point in decades,” says Natasha Kassam, a Taiwan expert at the Lowy Institute, a policy think tank based in Australia.

Taiwan is a democratic self-governed island of 24 million people. It lies 100 miles off the coast of mainland China. Since 1949, Taiwan has essentially operated as a separate nation. It has its own elections, military, and currency. Still, it has never formally declared itself an independent country. Chinese leaders continue to claim that Taiwan is part of China. And recently, China has stepped up its campaign against what it sees as a breakaway province. In fact, China has warned that it would respond with force to any declaration of independence.

“Relations between China and Taiwan are at their worst point in decades,” says Natasha Kassam, a Taiwan expert at the Lowy Institute, a policy think tank based in Australia.

The roots of the crisis go back to the period after World War II (see timeline slideshow below). A civil war had been ongoing in China between the Communist troops of Mao Zedong and the forces of the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek, which had been in power before the war. After World War II, the United States, fearing the spread of Communism during the Cold War (1947-91), sent money and advisers to support Chiang’s military. When Mao’s troops won this struggle in 1949 and established the People’s Republic of China, the Nationalist government and as many as 2.5 million of its supporters fled to the island of Taiwan.

There they proclaimed the island to be the Republic of China. The Nationalists weren’t announcing a new nation but saying they, not the Communists, represented the Chinese people. Initially, much of the international community, including the U.S., recognized Taiwan as the true China, rather than Mao’s Communists. But mainland China has a territory several hundred times larger than Taiwan and about 60 times more people, so over the years, most countries and international organizations acknowledged this and switched to recognizing Communist China. Today, just 14 nations and the Vatican recognize the government in Taiwan as the true China.

The roots of the crisis go back to the period after World War II (see timeline slideshow below). A civil war had been ongoing in China between the Communist troops of Mao Zedong and the forces of the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek. Chiang had been in power before the war. After World War II, the United States feared the spread of Communism during the Cold War (1947-91). As a result, the U.S. sent money and advisers to support Chiang’s military. When Mao’s troops won this struggle in 1949, they established the People’s Republic of China. Afterwards, the Nationalist government and as many as 2.5 million of its supporters fled to the island of Taiwan.

There they declared the island to be the Republic of China. The Nationalists weren’t announcing a new nation. Instead, they were saying that they, and not the Communists, represented the Chinese people. At first, much of the international community, including the U.S., recognized Taiwan, rather than Mao’s Communists, as the true China. But mainland China has a territory several hundred times larger than Taiwan and about 60 times more people. Over the years, most countries and international organizations acknowledged this and switched to recognizing Communist China. Today, just 14 nations and the Vatican consider the government in Taiwan to be the true China.

The U.S. officially recognized Communist China in 1979 but has continued to pledge its support for Taiwan. Today, the U.S. is a major supplier of military equipment and weaponry to Taiwan, and American troops engage in joint training exercises with Taiwanese forces on Taiwanese soil. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in October that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan remains “rock solid.”

Since assuming office in January, President Biden has stepped up assistance for Taiwan, continuing moves made under the Trump administration. American warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait eight times in the first eight months of the year. In August, Biden officials approved a new arms sale to Taiwan worth about $750 million, bringing the total for the past year to more than $5 billion.

The U.S. officially recognized Communist China in 1979. Still, the U.S. has continued to pledge its support for Taiwan. Today, the U.S. is a major supplier of military equipment and weaponry to Taiwan. American troops also engage in joint training exercises with Taiwanese forces on Taiwanese soil. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in October that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan remains “rock solid.”

Since taking office in January, President Biden has stepped up aid for Taiwan. His administration‘s efforts have continued moves made under the Trump administration. American warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait eight times in the first eight months of the year. In August, Biden officials approved a new arms sale to Taiwan worth about $750 million. That brought the total for the past year to more than $5 billion.

China has proposed the “one country, two systems” structure currently in place in Hong Kong as a way to resolve the Taiwan situation: Taiwan would acknowledge that it’s part of China but would maintain a different system of government for a certain period of time. That was the agreement between the Chinese and the United Kingdom that allowed for the peaceful handover of Hong Kong, a former British colony, to Chinese control in 1997.

But over the past few years, the Chinese government in Beijing has clamped down on freedoms in Hong Kong, arresting democracy activists, restricting freedom of the press, and tolerating less and less dissent from the people there. That’s convinced many Taiwanese that they can’t trust China to honor this commitment.

China has proposed the “one country, two systems” structure currently in place in Hong Kong as a way to fix the Taiwan situation. Taiwan would agree that it’s part of China but would maintain a different system of government for a certain period of time. That was the agreement between the Chinese and the United Kingdom that allowed for the peaceful handover of Hong Kong, a former British colony, to Chinese control in 1997.

But over the past few years, the Chinese government in Beijing has clamped down on freedoms in Hong Kong. China has arrested democracy activists, restricted freedom of the press, and tolerated less and less dissent from the people in Hong Kong. That’s convinced many Taiwanese that they can’t trust China to honor this commitment.

“The Taiwanese notice that freedoms in Hong Kong have become more and more restricted,” says Austin Wang, a political science professor at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. “China’s promise that your lifestyle will not change for 50 years is not really a reliable promise.”

At the same time, the rhetoric from Beijing about Taiwan has become more ominous. In early October, President Xi Jinping called Taiwanese independence “a grave lurking threat.” China wants peaceful unification, he said, but added: “Nobody should underestimate the staunch determination, firm will, and powerful ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

“The Taiwanese notice that freedoms in Hong Kong have become more and more restricted,” says Austin Wang, a political science professor at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. “China’s promise that your lifestyle will not change for 50 years is not really a reliable promise.”

At the same time, what Beijing is saying about Taiwan has become more threatening. In early October, President Xi Jinping called Taiwanese independence “a grave lurking threat.” China wants peaceful unification, he said, but added: “Nobody should underestimate the staunch determination, firm will, and powerful ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

For decades, the understanding was that Taiwan was under the protection of the U.S., and there was no way that the Chinese military would challenge that relationship. But as China’s military muscle has grown, it’s no longer clear that the mere threat of American action will protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Every Chinese leader since Mao has vowed to absorb Taiwan back into the country. Xi, who has tightened his grip on power since becoming president in 2013 and has pushed China as a genuine global powerhouse, is the first leader with a military strong enough to make a re-annexation of Taiwan by force a real possibility, experts say.

Most Taiwanese don’t want to be part of mainland China. A recent poll found that 87 percent want some form of the status quo.

“If there were no risk of invasion from China, the majority would choose independence,” says Kassam, the Lowy Institute expert on Taiwan.

For decades, the understanding was that Taiwan was under the protection of the U.S., and there was no way that the Chinese military would challenge that relationship. But China’s military muscle has grown. It’s no longer clear whether the threat of American action is enough to protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Every Chinese leader since Mao has vowed to absorb Taiwan back into the country. Xi has tightened his grip on power since becoming president in 2013. He also has pushed China as a genuine global powerhouse. And he is the first leader with a military strong enough to make a re-annexation of Taiwan by force a real possibility, experts say.

Most Taiwanese don’t want to be part of mainland China. A recent poll found that 87 percent want some form of the status quo.

“If there were no risk of invasion from China, the majority would choose independence,” says Kassam, the Lowy Institute expert on Taiwan.

Over the years, Taiwan has developed a culture that’s distinct from China’s, much the way the U.S. is different from the United Kingdom, though the people of both countries still speak the same language. While China is a one-party state, Taiwan’s vibrant political system has two major parties and several smaller ones that compete in open, fair elections. China censors its news and internet, while Taiwan boasts one of the freest media environments in Asia, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Taiwan is also famous for having invented bubble tea and for its youth baseball teams that have frequently won the Little League World Series.

Thirty years ago, surveys indicated that most people in Taiwan thought of themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese, says Wang of the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. Now, more than 60 percent say they’re just Taiwanese.

Over the years, Taiwan has developed a culture that’s distinct from China’s. It‘s similar to how the U.S. is different from the United Kingdom, though the people of both countries still speak the same language. While China is a one-party state, Taiwan’s vibrant political system has two major parties and several smaller ones that compete in open, fair elections. China censors its news and internet, while Taiwan boasts one of the freest media environments in Asia, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Taiwan is also famous for having invented bubble tea. And its youth baseball teams have frequently won the Little League World Series.

Thirty years ago, surveys showed that most people in Taiwan thought of themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese, says Wang of the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. Now, more than 60 percent say they’re just Taiwanese.

“The repressions in Hong Kong have totally shifted opinions in Taiwan,” says Wang, who is from Taiwan. “We all enjoy the greater Chinese culture, but when it comes to unification, most Taiwanese people hold a negative view of mainland China.”

Louie Huang, a 19-year-old sophomore in the political science department of National Taiwan University in Taipei, is one of those people. He says that recently “it’s like people never stop talking about the threat from China.”

Huang is deeply troubled by what he sees as the Chinese government’s increasingly confrontational attitude toward Taiwan.

“I think if Taiwan is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, probably our 30-year effort for pursuing democracy and building stable institutions will be destroyed,” says Huang. “What Hong Kongers have been through is a crucial lesson, which people in Taiwan must learn from.”

“The repressions in Hong Kong have totally shifted opinions in Taiwan,” says Wang, who is from Taiwan. “We all enjoy the greater Chinese culture, but when it comes to unification, most Taiwanese people hold a negative view of mainland China.”

Louie Huang is one of those people. The 19-year-old is a sophomore in the political science department of National Taiwan University in Taipei. He says that recently “it’s like people never stop talking about the threat from China.”

Huang is deeply troubled by what he sees as the Chinese government’s increasingly aggressive attitude toward Taiwan.

“I think if Taiwan is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, probably our 30-year effort for pursuing democracy and building stable institutions will be destroyed,” says Huang. “What Hong Kongers have been through is a crucial lesson, which people in Taiwan must learn from.”