Does Russia Want War?

The signs of impending war were everywhere.

By late January, 100,000 Russian troops were massed on Russia’s border with Ukraine, as tanks and military helicopters swarmed in behind them. With tensions mounting, diplomats raced to head off a possible invasion, and the United States—a committed ally of Ukraine—threatened a decisive response if Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, attacked his neighbor.

“I made it very clear: If, in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences,” President Biden said, following a long-distance virtual summit meeting with Putin in December, “severe consequences—and economic consequences like none he’s ever seen or ever have been seen.”

The Ukraine crisis set up what may be the most heated confrontation between the U.S. and Russia since the demise of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War three decades ago, Russia experts say. The standoff is rooted in Putin’s longstanding anger over Russia’s diminished status since the days when the Soviet Union and the U.S. were the world’s two superpowers; now only the U.S. remains.

“Putin sees an opportunity to reverse everything that’s happened in Europe in the last 30 years, to push the West out of Eastern Europe, and they’re using Ukraine as a hostage in this,” says Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

The signs of approaching war were everywhere.

By late January, 100,000 Russian troops lined Russia’s border with Ukraine. Tanks and military helicopters swarmed in behind them. With tensions growing, diplomats raced to stop a possible invasion. The United States, a committed ally of Ukraine, threatened to respond if Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, attacked his neighbor.

“I made it very clear: If, in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences,” President Biden said, following a long-distance virtual summit meeting with Putin in December, “severe consequences—and economic consequences like none he’s ever seen or ever have been seen.”

The Ukraine crisis set up what may be the most heated showdown between the U.S. and Russia in decades, Russia experts say. They note that things haven’t been this tense since the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. The standoff is rooted in Putin’s longstanding anger over Russia’s decreased status. Years ago, the Soviet Union and the U.S. were the world’s two superpowers. Now only the U.S. remains.

“Putin sees an opportunity to reverse everything that’s happened in Europe in the last 30 years, to push the West out of Eastern Europe, and they’re using Ukraine as a hostage in this,” says Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

Europe has changed a lot in the past three decades. Many Eastern European countries—places that were either part of the Soviet Union or within its sphere of influence—have become Western-leaning democracies. Fourteen of them have joined NATO, the security alliance that was formed in the aftermath of World War II to contain Communism. Several other Eastern European nations, including Ukraine, have asked to join NATO in the future.

As a price for ending Russia’s threats on Ukraine, Putin wants the U.S. and its NATO allies to remove all weapons and forces from countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. And the West must promise that Ukraine and other former Soviet states will never be allowed to join the NATO alliance. In other words, Putin is trying to “re-create the old sphere of Soviet influence,” as historian Niall Ferguson puts it.

Despite indications in late January that an invasion could be imminent, the U.S. wasn’t backing down. The Biden administration called Russia’s demands “nonstarters” and said it was considering sending thousands of U.S. troops to Eastern Europe as a deterrent.

Europe has changed a lot in the past three decades. Many Eastern European countries were either part of the Soviet Union or allied with it. These countries have since become Western-leaning democracies. Fourteen of them have joined NATO, the security alliance that was formed after World War II to curb Communism. Several other Eastern European nations, including Ukraine, have asked to join NATO in the future.

Putin wants the U.S. and its NATO allies to remove all weapons and forces from countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. He says it’s the price they must pay to end Russia’s threats against Ukraine. And the West must promise that Ukraine and other former Soviet states will never be allowed to join the NATO alliance. In other words, Putin is trying to “re-create the old sphere of Soviet influence,” as historian Niall Ferguson puts it.

Despite signs in late January that an invasion could be near, the U.S. wasn’t backing down. The Biden administration called Russia’s demands “nonstarters.” The Biden administration also said it’s considering sending thousands of U.S. troops to Eastern Europe.

Tensions between the U.S. and Russia have a long history (see timeline slideshow below). During the Cold War—a four-decades-long conflict between Soviet Communism and Western democracy that began in the years after World War II (1939-45)—the two superpowers struggled for global supremacy and several times came close to outright head-to-head war.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, a new democratic Russia was born, and it looked briefly like the U.S. and Russia might become allies. But Russia—which before the 1917 Communist revolution had been ruled by autocratic czars for more than 350 years—had no experience with democracy. In the mayhem of the transition period in the 1990s, when capitalism and private enterprise replaced government ownership of most businesses, prices soared and the economy crashed. That left many Russians impoverished and disillusioned.

So when Putin came to power in 1999 promising security and prosperity, many Russians welcomed the idea of having a new strongman in charge. Since then, Putin has consolidated power and eliminated his opposition. Life for many Russians has improved, mostly because of global demand for oil from Russia’s vast reserves.

Tensions between the U.S. and Russia have a long history, coming to a head during the Cold War (see timeline slideshow, below). The four-decades-long conflict between Soviet Communism and Western democracy began in the years after World War II (1939-45). During that period, the two superpowers struggled for global control. Several times they came close to outright head-to-head war.

The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. A new democratic Russia was born. It looked briefly like the U.S. and Russia might become allies. But Russia had no experience with democracy. Before the 1917 Communist revolution, Russia’s autocratic czars had ruled for more than 350 years. In the rough transition period in the 1990s, capitalism and private enterprise replaced government ownership of most businesses. Prices soared, and the economy crashed. That left many Russians poor and without hope.

Putin came to power in 1999, promising security and prosperity. And many Russians welcomed the idea of having a new strongman in charge. Since then, Putin has tightened his grip on power and eliminated his opposition. Life for many Russians has gotten better. That’s mostly thanks to the global demand for oil from Russia’s huge stockpiles.

But, in a throwback to the days of Soviet dictatorship, most of Putin’s critics and political rivals have been imprisoned under sketchy circumstances or even killed. Many more have fled the country. The protests that erupted last year against Putin’s growing authoritarianism have been quashed. Putin’s United Russia party claimed a sizable victory in September’s parliamentary elections, and despite evidence of electoral fraud, there were few protests.

Putin’s approval rating now stands above 60 percent. And last year, Putin signed a law allowing him to run for two more six-year presidential terms, potentially extending his rule to 2036.

All the while, Putin has increasingly portrayed the U.S. as an enemy of renewed Russian greatness. The government has promoted a steady militarization of Russian society, including a propaganda program aimed at young people (see “A Growing ‘Youth Army,’ ” below).

But, in a throwback to the days of Soviet dictatorship, Putin has silenced his critics and political rivals. Most of them have been put into prison under sketchy circumstances or even killed. Many more have fled the country. The protests that broke out last year against Putin’s increasingly strict rule have been crushed. Putin’s United Russia party claimed a huge victory in September’s parliamentary elections. Despite proof of electoral fraud, there were few protests.

Putin’s approval rating now stands above 60 percent. And last year, Putin signed a law allowing him to run for two more six-year presidential terms. That could extend his rule to 2036.

All the while, Putin has increasingly portrayed the U.S. as an enemy of renewed Russian greatness. The government has promoted a steady militarization of Russian society. That’s included a campaign aimed at young people (see “A Growing ‘Youth Army,’ ” below).

Putin appears eager to recapture some of the glory of the Soviet Union, whose 15 republics, including Ukraine, became independent nations in 1991 (see map, above). Russia was left with 23 percent less land and half the population of the Soviet Union.

Putin has described the Soviet collapse as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. Experts say it’s therefore no surprise that Russia has repeatedly intervened in the affairs of its former republics.

That intervention reached a climax in 2014, when Russian troops crossed into Ukraine, seized control of the Crimean Peninsula—which had been officially part of Ukraine* for more than half a century—and simply declared it to be part of Russia again. When Russia seized Crimea, it also helped stir up an armed rebellion among ethnic Russians who live in eastern Ukraine; that conflict continues to this day.

Putin appears eager to recapture some of the glory of the Soviet Union. Its 15 republics, including Ukraine, became independent nations in 1991 (see map, below). Russia was left with 23 percent less land and half the population of the Soviet Union.

Putin has described the Soviet collapse as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. That’s why experts say it’s no surprise that Russia has continued to interfere with its former republics.

That intervention reached a climax in 2014. That year, Russian troops invaded Ukraine. They took control of the Crimean Peninsula and simply declared it to be part of Russia again. The area had been officially part of Ukraine for more than half a century. When Russia seized Crimea, it also helped start an armed rebellion among ethnic Russians who live in eastern Ukraine. That conflict continues to this day.

Despite the takeover of Crimea and the ongoing fighting, Putin’s attempts to restore Russian control over all of Ukraine have so far backfired. Ukraine’s government has strong ties to the West, and the U.S. has sold it billions of dollars of military equipment since 2014.

American and Russian diplomats met in January to try to resolve the Ukraine crisis. U.S. officials made clear at those meetings that they have no intention of bowing to Russia’s demands about rolling back NATO’s influence in Europe. In particular, the U.S. takes issue with Russia’s insistence that Ukraine never be offered membership in NATO.

Despite the takeover of Crimea and the ongoing fighting, Putin’s efforts to regain Russian control over all of Ukraine have so far backfired. Ukraine’s government has strong ties to the West. And the U.S. has sold it billions of dollars of military equipment since 2014.

American and Russian diplomats met in January to try to fix the Ukraine crisis. U.S. officials made clear at those meetings that they won’t bow to Russia’s demands about rolling back NATO’s influence in Europe. In particular, the U.S. takes issue with Russia’s call for Ukraine to never be offered membership in NATO.

“We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s open-door policy, which has always been central to the NATO alliance,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said after an eight-hour negotiating session.

Despite all of Putin’s jockeying on the world stage, Russia is no longer considered a superpower: Compared with the Soviet Union, Russia’s economy, military, and global influence are all much smaller. And Andrew Weiss, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues we should keep that in mind when dealing with Putin’s provocations.

“Putin wants us to say there’s a new Cold War, and Russia’s our biggest enemy,” Weiss says. “That would be political gold for him, and we shouldn’t give it to him, because it would give him a level of stature vis-à-vis the U.S. that he doesn’t deserve.”

“We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s open-door policy, which has always been central to the NATO alliance,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said after an eight-hour negotiating session.

Despite Putin’s display on the world stage, Russia is no longer considered a superpower. Compared with the Soviet Union, Russia’s economy, military, and global influence are all much smaller. And Andrew Weiss, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues we should keep that in mind.

“Putin wants us to say there’s a new Cold War, and Russia’s our biggest enemy,” Weiss says. “That would be political gold for him, and we shouldn’t give it to him, because it would give him a level of stature vis-à-vis the U.S. that he doesn’t deserve.”

^{*In 1954, when Ukraine and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union, official control of Crimea was transferred from the Russian republic to the Ukrainian republic.}

^{*In 1954, when Ukraine and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union, official control of Crimea was transferred from the Russian republic to the Ukrainian republic.}

With reporting by David E. Sanger, Anton Troianovski, Ivan Nechepurenko, and Valerie Hopkins of The New York Times.

With reporting by David E. Sanger, Anton Troianovski, Ivan Nechepurenko, and Valerie Hopkins of The New York Times.