In the meantime, if a Democratic senator became sick or died, it would deprive Democrats of a majority, which could endanger Jackson’s confirmation. In January, Senator Ben Ray Luján, a 49-year-old Democrat of New Mexico, was hospitalized after having a stroke. Nine Senate Democrats are 75 or older, and three of them are in their 80s.
The Court now has six conservative-leaning and three liberal-leaning justices. Breyer is the most senior of the three liberals, and Jackson would likely have a similar judicial philosophy. But that doesn’t mean the change wouldn’t be significant. It would be the first time women sat in four of the Court’s nine seats.
“Every time there’s a new justice appointed to the Court, it’s a new Court,” says Lee Epstein, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis. “It’s a small committee of nine people, and when you replace one, that can change the dynamics.”
One place the dynamics have already changed is the Senate. Supreme Court nominees used to be confirmed by broad bipartisan majorities. In 1994, Breyer was confirmed 87-9. In today’s super-partisan politics, that kind of across-the-aisle support is unthinkable. Former President Barack Obama’s last nominee got only a handful of Republican votes. And the last two justices Trump appointed were confirmed with a total of just one Democratic vote. Some lawmakers regret that shift and are hoping there is more bipartisan support for Jackson.
“I really think it would be harmful to the country to have a repeat of what we saw with the last two nominees being so narrowly confirmed,” says Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine. “I just don’t think that is good for the country, nor the Court.”