How the War in Ukraine Changed the World

Until a couple of months ago, 21-year-old Hlib Bondarenko was working in Ukraine as a computer programmer. But when Russian forces invaded his country on February 24, his world changed overnight. Like hundreds of thousands of other Ukrainians, Bondarenko joined the military to help defend his country.

“I don’t really have any choice because this is my home,” he explained as he waited in line for a weapon with other volunteers eager to defend Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Until a couple of months ago, 21-year-old Hlib Bondarenko was working in Ukraine as a computer programmer. But then Russian forces invaded his country on February 24. As a result, his world changed overnight. Like hundreds of thousands of other Ukrainians, Bondarenko joined the military to help defend his country.

“I don’t really have any choice because this is my home,” he explained as he waited in line for a weapon with other volunteers eager to defend Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine turned life upside down—not just for Ukrainians like Bondarenko, but also far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Regardless of how the war turns out—at press time, negotiators were still trying to come to terms on a cease-fire—the conflict has upended everything from politics to trade and seriously damaged the relationship between Russia and the rest of the world, including the United States.

“The world is not going to be the same,” says Stephen Biddle, a professor of international relations at Columbia University. “It’s entirely plausible that we could be settling in for a long Cold War with the Russians.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine turned life upside down for Ukrainians like Bondarenko. The effects went far beyond Ukraine’s borders. At press time, people on both sides were still trying to come to terms on a cease-fire. Regardless of how the war turns out, the conflict has upended everything from politics to trade. It’s also seriously damaged the relationship between Russia and the rest of the world, including the United States.

“The world is not going to be the same,” says Stephen Biddle, a professor of international relations at Columbia University. “It’s entirely plausible that we could be settling in for a long Cold War with the Russians.”

The fighting in Ukraine has killed thousands, including many civilians; reduced thriving communities to rubble; and prompted the worst refugee crisis since World War II, with millions of Ukrainians fleeing into Poland, Hungary, and beyond. (In March, President Biden announced that the United States would accept up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.)

The violence shocked the world into responding with a unity not seen in generations. The U.S. worked closely with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and New Zealand to impose tough economic sanctions against Russia—the harshest ever inflicted on a single country, dwarfing those in place against North Korea. The U.S. froze the assets of Russia’s central bank, kicked several major Russian banks out of the international system for electronic money transfers, and banned the importation of Russian oil.

The way democratic countries unified in response to the crisis is both surprising and reassuring, says Michael Mazarr of RAND, a Washington think tank.

“For all those who said, ‘When Russia really comes after the West, we’re going to fold like a deck of cards,’ they have been proved wrong,” he says.

The fighting in Ukraine has killed thousands. Many of those who’ve died were civilians. The conflict has also reduced thriving communities to rubble. And the chaos has led to the worst refugee crisis since World War II. Millions of Ukrainians have fled into Poland, Hungary, and beyond. In March, President Biden said that the United States would accept up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.

The violence shocked the world into replying with a unity not seen in generations. The U.S. worked closely with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and New Zealand. The nations imposed tough economic sanctions against Russia. The sanctions are the harshest ever put on a single country. In fact, they dwarf those in place against North Korea. The U.S. froze the assets of Russia’s central bank. Several major Russian banks were kicked out of the international system for electronic money transfers. The U.S. also banned the importation of Russian oil.

The way democratic countries unified in response to the crisis is both surprising and reassuring, says Michael Mazarr of RAND, a Washington think tank.

“For all those who said, ‘When Russia really comes after the West, we’re going to fold like a deck of cards,’ they have been proved wrong,” he says.

And this unity is giving many observers newfound optimism about the future of democracy. For at least a decade, authoritarianism has been on the rise. The number of liberal democracies in the world peaked in 2012 with 42 countries, but now there are 34, home to just 13 percent of the world’s population, according to V-Dem, a nonprofit that studies governments. Some experts see a possible reversal of that trend in the united effort to stop Russia’s aggression.

“I see this as a pivotal moment for the future of democracy,” says Erica Frantz, a professor at Michigan State University who studies authoritarianism. “The unity of the response has really signaled some of the positives of democracy—that we value freedom and that we’ll protect each other.”

And this unity is giving many people newfound optimism about the future of democracy. For at least a decade, authoritarian rule has been on the rise. The number of liberal democracies in the world peaked in 2012 with 42 countries, but now there are 34. They represent only 13 percent of the world’s population, according to V-Dem, a nonprofit that studies governments. Some experts see a possible reversal of that trend in the united effort to stop Russia’s aggression.

“I see this as a pivotal moment for the future of democracy,” says Erica Frantz, a professor at Michigan State University who studies authoritarianism. “The unity of the response has really signaled some of the positives of democracy—that we value freedom and that we’ll protect each other.”

What did Putin do to provoke this unprecedented response? On February 24, after months of making threats and amassing troops on Ukraine’s border, he ordered an invasion from the east, the north, and the south. Within days, Russian artillery was leveling apartment buildings and shopping complexes. Suddenly Ukrainians, who were living ordinary lives just weeks earlier, were joining the fight to defend their nation and its democratically elected government or trying to escape the carnage.

Putin said he attacked because the presence of NATO troops and weapons in countries along Russia’s border threaten Russia’s security. Experts say his underlying aim was to reclaim the international status his country had when the Soviet Union was one of the world’s two great superpowers (see “Does Russia Want War?”).

What did Putin do to incite this unprecedented response? For months, he made threats and gathered troops on Ukraine’s border. On February 24, he ordered an invasion from the east, the north, and the south. Within days, Russian forces were destroying apartment buildings and shopping complexes. Ukrainians were living ordinary lives weeks earlier. Suddenly, they were joining the fight to defend their nation and its democratically elected government. Or they were just trying to escape the bloodshed.

Putin said he attacked because the presence of NATO troops and weapons in countries along Russia’s border threatens Russia’s security. Experts say his underlying aim was to reclaim the international status his country had when the Soviet Union was one of the world’s two great superpowers (see “Does Russia Want War?”).

But the Ukrainian military didn’t collapse quickly, as Putin seems to have assumed it would. Inspired by the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian forces resisted fiercely. In the first 20 days of fighting, more than 7,000 Russian troops died—more than the U.S. lost in 20 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq combined. At the same time, there’s been widespread devastation of Ukraine’s infrastructure and a rising number of civilian deaths.

Putin seems to have dramatically miscalculated the grit of the Ukrainian people to resist militarily—and also the economic consequences for Russia.

In addition to all the official sanctions, a growing list of international companies—including Shell, McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Coca-Cola—are voluntarily no longer doing business in Russia. Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal stopped operating there. The result in Russia was a collapse of the economy, with people seeing the value of their savings evaporate and the Western brands and conveniences they’re used to disappear.

Putin seems to have assumed that the Ukrainian military would collapse quickly. But it didn’t. Instead, inspired by the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian forces resisted fiercely. In the first 20 days of fighting, more than 7,000 Russian troops died. That’s more than the U.S. lost in 20 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq combined. At the same time, there’s been widespread devastation of Ukraine’s infrastructure. There have also been a rising number of civilian deaths.

Putin seems to have dramatically miscalculated the grit of the Ukrainian people to resist militarily. He also underestimated the economic consequences for Russia.

In addition to all the official sanctions, a growing list of international companies are voluntarily no longer doing business in Russia. That includes Shell, McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Coca-Cola. Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal stopped operating there. The result in Russia was a collapse of the economy. People in Russia saw their savings and the Western brands and conveniences they’re used to disappear.

In the space of a few weeks, the sanctions effectively undid 30 years of economic integration with the West. The Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based association of financial firms, predicts that Russia will see a 15 percent decline in its GDP this year, which would wipe out much of the economic growth that Putin has presided over since taking office in 1999.

The economic fallout will likely be widespread. Russia is the world’s third-largest exporter of oil, so the ban on buying Russian oil restricted the global supply. In the European Union, which before the Ukraine crisis depended on Russia for about 40 percent of its gas, planners are hoping to reduce reliance on Russian energy by 80 percent this year.

The war in Ukraine could also lead to a global food shortage. Over the past five years, Russia and Ukraine have together accounted for nearly 30 percent of the exports of the world’s wheat, 17 percent of its corn, 32 percent of barley, and 75 percent of sunflower seed oil, an important cooking oil in some parts of the world. Now those commodities are trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the fighting.

Oil and food shortages have sent global food and energy prices soaring at a time when Americans were already facing high inflation from pandemic-related supply chain problems.

In the space of a few weeks, the sanctions effectively undid 30 years of economic integration with the West. The Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based association of financial firms, predicts that Russia will see a 15 percent decline in its GDP this year. That would wipe out much of the economic growth that Putin has overseen since taking office in 1999.

The economic fallout will likely be widespread. Russia is the world’s third-largest exporter of oil. That’s why the ban on buying Russian oil limited the global supply. Before the Ukraine crisis, the European Union depended on Russia for about 40 percent of its gas. Now, its planners are hoping to reduce reliance on Russian energy by 80 percent this year.

The war in Ukraine could also lead to a global food shortage. Over the past five years, Russia and Ukraine have together accounted for nearly 30 percent of the exports of the world’s wheat, 17 percent of its corn, and 32 percent of barley. They’ve also made up 75 percent of global exports of sunflower seed oil, which is an important cooking oil in some parts of the world. Now those goods are trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the fighting.

Americans were already facing high inflation from pandemic-related supply chain problems. Now the oil and food shortages have sent global food and energy prices soaring.

With the war not going as planned, Putin has choked off dissent in Russia. All independent news outlets were effectively shut down within days of the invasion. Official news sources give the government’s distorted version of events in Ukraine, calling the invasion a “special military operation” rather than the war that the rest of the world watched unfold in real time on viral videos. A new Russian law punishes any mention of a “war” on social media, in a news article, or in a broadcast with up to 15 years in jail.

Still, thousands of Russians have been arrested for protesting, and on March 14, a state television employee interrupted a live broadcast, yelling “Stop the war!” and holding a sign that said, “They’re lying to you here” (see photo, above).

For all of Putin’s repression over the past two decades, Russia—until late February—remained a place with extensive travel connections to the rest of the world, a mostly uncensored internet giving a platform to independent media, a thriving tech industry, and a world-class arts scene. Slices of Western middle-class life—Ikea, Starbucks, affordable foreign cars—were widely available.

With the war not going as planned, Putin has made it harder for people to resist in Russia. All independent news outlets were effectively shut down within days of the invasion. Official news sources give the government’s distorted version of events in Ukraine. They call the invasion a “special military operation” rather than the war that the rest of the world watched unfold in real time on viral videos. A new Russian law punishes any mention of a “war” on social media, in a news article, or in a broadcast with up to 15 years in jail.

Still, thousands of Russians have been arrested for protesting. On March 14, a state television employee interrupted a live broadcast, yelling “Stop the war!” She held a sign that said, “They’re lying to you here.” (see photo, above).

Putin’s repression has increased over the past two decades. Still, until late February, Russia remained a place with many travel connections to the rest of the world. The country also has had a mostly uncensored internet giving a platform to independent media, a thriving tech industry, and a world-class arts scene. Slices of Western middle-class life were widely available. That includes things like Ikea, Starbucks, and affordable foreign cars.

But when they woke up on the morning of the invasion, many Russians knew all that was over. Dmitry Aleshkovsky, a journalist, got in his car the next day and drove to Latvia. He’s not alone. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since the invasion. They’re outraged by what they see as a criminal war, worried about getting drafted into the army, or concerned that their livelihoods are no longer viable back home.

“It became totally clear that if this red line has been crossed, nothing will hold him back anymore,” Aleshkovsky says of Putin. “Things will only get worse.”

Russia’s international status will also suffer, scholars say.

“This is going to leave scars for a very long time,” says Eliot Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “I think Russia’s going to be a pariah state.”

Despite the physical devastation and lives lost from Russian bombardment, Ukraine, on the other hand, which has always been a somewhat fragile multiethnic state, is more likely to emerge from this crisis stronger, Cohen says.

“They’re paying a terrible price for it,” he says, “but this is really going to make Ukraine a cohesive nation state in a way that never would have happened otherwise.”

But when they woke up on the morning of the invasion, many Russians knew all that was over. Dmitry Aleshkovsky, a journalist, got in his car the next day and drove to Latvia. He’s not alone. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since the invasion. Some of them are outraged by what they see as a criminal war. Others are worried about getting drafted into the army or concerned that they can’t make a living back home.

“It became totally clear that if this red line has been crossed, nothing will hold him back anymore,” Aleshkovsky says of Putin. “Things will only get worse.”

Russia’s international status will also suffer, scholars say.

“This is going to leave scars for a very long time,” says Eliot Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “I think Russia’s going to be a pariah state.”

Ukraine has suffered physical devastation and many lives lost. Still, Ukraine, which has always been a somewhat fragile multiethnic state, is more likely to become stronger from the crisis, Cohen says.

“They’re paying a terrible price for it,” he says, “but this is really going to make Ukraine a cohesive nation state in a way that never would have happened otherwise.”