‘A Climate Emergency’

Laurence Axtens and his 91-year-old mother were trapped in their home as the water outside rose higher and higher. The house in Lismore, Australia, was built above ground on stilts, but not high enough to escape the catastrophic flooding that ravaged Australia’s east coast this spring.

Desperate for help, Axtens called the police. But they were overwhelmed with pleas for rescue and could do little. Finally, Axtens reached a friend who pulled up in a private boat to save them.

“I’m incredibly grateful that I didn’t have to watch my mother die in front of me,” he says. Twenty-two people died in the flooding, and the rebuilding will cost billions.

The torrential rains and massive flooding in Australia were just the latest example of how scientists say climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Last summer, record-breaking floods devastated much of Europe. In the United States, the West is suffering the worst drought in 1,200 years, and wildfires have destroyed many communities. No single weather event can be definitively attributed to climate change, but overall patterns can be, climate scientists say.

Laurence Axtens and his 91-year-old mother were trapped in their home. The water outside rose higher and higher. Their house in Lismore, Australia, stood on stilts that held it above ground. Still, it wasn’t built high enough to escape the flooding that hit Australia’s east coast this spring.

With few options, Axtens called the police. But they had so many pleas for rescue to deal with that they could do little. Finally, Axtens reached a friend who pulled up in a private boat to save them.

“I’m incredibly grateful that I didn’t have to watch my mother die in front of me,” he says. Twenty-two people died in the flooding, and the rebuilding will cost billions.

Scientists say climate change is making natural disasters more common and more severe. The heavy rains and widespread flooding in Australia were just the latest example. Last summer, record-breaking floods struck much of Europe. In the United States, the West is suffering the worst drought in 1,200 years. And wildfires have destroyed many communities across the nation. Climate scientists say that it’s not possible to draw a clear line from a weather event to climate change. Instead, they depend on overall patterns to make connections.

Now a major new report on climate change, released last month, finds that nations need to move away from using fossil fuels much faster to prevent the worst effects.

The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of experts convened by the United Nations, warns that unless countries drastically accelerate efforts to slash emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, will likely be out of reach by the end of this decade.

Last month, a major new report on climate change was released. It finds that nations need to move away from using fossil fuels much faster to prevent the worst effects.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of experts pulled together by the United Nations, created the report. It urges countries to speed up their efforts to cut emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas. World leaders have agreed to cut emissions in an attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. Unless they take swift action, the report warns, that goal will likely be out of reach by the end of this decade.

That’s the threshold beyond which scientists say the effects of global warming—including worsening floods, droughts, wildfires, and ecosystem collapse—will grow considerably. Humans have already heated the planet by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the 19th century, largely by burning fossil fuels for energy, scientists say.

But the task is daunting: Holding warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius would require nations to collectively reduce planet-warming emissions roughly 43 percent by 2030 and to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere altogether by the early 2050s, the report found. By contrast, current government policies are expected to reduce global emissions by only a few percentage points this decade.

“This is a climate emergency,” says U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.

In the coming decades, as global temperatures continue to rise, hundreds of millions of people could struggle against floods, deadly heat waves, and water scarcity from severe drought, the report says. Mosquitoes carrying diseases like dengue and malaria will spread to new parts of the globe. Crop failures could become more widespread.

The report, which lays out strategies that countries could pursue to halt global warming, comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused oil and gas prices to skyrocket, diverting political attention from climate change. In the U.S. and Europe, leaders are focused on shoring up domestic fossil fuel supplies to avoid price spikes and energy shortages, even if that means higher short-term emissions.

Yet climate scientists say there is little room for delay if the world wants to hold warming to relatively tolerable levels.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius target was set by scientists. They say that the effects of global warming will escalate if we cross it. That will mean worsening floods, droughts, wildfires, and ecosystem collapse. Humans have already heated the planet by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the 19th century. The increase has been due in large part to the burning of fossil fuels for energy, scientists say.

But the task of holding warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius won’t be easy. To do so, nations would have to reduce planet-warming emissions roughly 43 percent by 2030. They’d also have to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere altogether by the early 2050s, the report found. But current government policies are expected to lower global emissions by only a few percentage points this decade.

“This is a climate emergency,” says U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.

In the coming decades, global temperatures will likely continue to rise. If they do, the report says, the results would be grim. Hundreds of millions of people could face floods, deadly heat waves, and lack of water from severe drought. Mosquitoes carrying diseases like dengue and malaria will spread to new parts of the globe. Crop failures could become more widespread.

The report lays out strategies that countries could pursue to halt global warming. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has overshadowed the report’s release. The conflict has caused oil and gas prices to skyrocket. That’s turned political attention away from climate change. In the U.S. and Europe, leaders are focused on preserving domestic fossil fuel supplies. They hope to avoid price spikes and energy shortages, even if that means higher short-term emissions.

Yet climate scientists say there is little room for delay if the world wants to meet climate targets.

The report contains glimmers of hope. In the past decade, many nations have adopted ambitious climate policies, reduced plans for new coal plants, and expanded renewable energy. Although emissions from fossil fuels are still growing worldwide, the rate of growth slowed in the 2010s compared with the 2000s, the report says, and humanity now has a much better shot at avoiding some of the worst-case global warming scenarios once widely feared by scientists.

Clean energy technology has advanced far more quickly than expected, the report says. Since 2010, the costs of solar panels and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles have plunged by 85 percent, while the cost of wind turbines has fallen by more than half.

The report has glimmers of hope. In the past decade, many nations have put bold climate policies in place. They also have reduced plans for new coal plants and expanded renewable energy. Although emissions from fossil fuels are still growing worldwide, the report says that the rate of growth slowed in the 2010s compared with the 2000s. Humanity now has a much better shot at avoiding some of the worst-case global warming outcomes once widely feared by scientists.

Clean energy technology has advanced far more quickly than expected, the report says. Since 2010, the costs of solar panels and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles have plunged by 85 percent. The cost of wind turbines has also decreased, falling by more than half.

Scientists hope to build on those successes—as quickly as possible.

“If we act now, we have a lot of choices. Ten years from now . . . a lot less,” says Edward R. Carr, a professor of international development at Clark University, in Massachusetts. He adds, “We’ll always have choices. But they’ll be less good choices, and they’ll be much harder choices to make.”

Scientists hope to build on those successes—as quickly as possible.

“If we act now, we have a lot of choices. Ten years from now . . . a lot less,” says Edward R. Carr, a professor of international development at Clark University, in Massachusetts. He adds, “We’ll always have choices. But they’ll be less good choices, and they’ll be much harder choices to make.”

With reporting by Brad Plumer, Raymond Zhong, Lisa Friedman, and Yan Zhuang of The Times.

With reporting by Brad Plumer, Raymond Zhong, Lisa Friedman, and Yan Zhuang of The Times.