Will Biden Pass His Midterms?

Ben Rock, 18, spent three months last spring registering his high school classmates to vote and trying to convince them that it’s important to cast a ballot this November.

“I’ve lived in Nevada my whole life,” says Rock, who graduated in June from Incline High School, in Incline Village, Nevada. “It swings back and forth from Republican to Democratic almost every year. That’s why it’s so important to get teens politically engaged.”

The extent to which teens—and older Americans—vote this fall could determine which party controls Congress and what the next two years of President Biden’s term will look like. Typically, midterm elections—so called because they fall halfway through a president’s four-year term—don’t draw as much attention or turnout at the polls as presidential elections.

“But in some ways, they’re more important than presidential elections, because all the laws are written by Congress,” says Mark Rom, a political science professor at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

Ben Rock, 18, spent three months last spring getting his classmates registered to vote. He also tried to convince them that it’s important to cast a ballot this November.

“I’ve lived in Nevada my whole life,” says Rock, who graduated in June from Incline High School, in Incline Village, Nevada. “It swings back and forth from Republican to Democratic almost every year. That’s why it’s so important to get teens politically engaged.”

How Americans, including teens, vote this fall could decide which party controls Congress. The outcome will also affect what the next two years of President Biden’s term will look like. Midterm elections fall halfway through a president’s four-year term. Typically, they draw less attention and lower voter turnout than presidential elections.

“But in some ways, they’re more important than presidential elections, because all the laws are written by Congress,” says Mark Rom, a political science professor at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 out of 100 U.S. Senate seats and 36 state governorships. Most of the 435 seats in the House are safely controlled by one party or the other, thanks to gerrymandering (the drawing of political districts to benefit the party in power) and political polarization.

With Democrats narrowly controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, experts consider it likely that Republicans will do well in November. The most likely place for Republicans to pick up seats is the House of Representatives. Currently, Democrats hold 220 seats and Republicans hold 211. (see “Congress By the Numbers,” below). To take control of the House, Republicans need to win the seats they already have plus seven additional ones.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 U.S. Senate seats are up for election. Voters in 36 states will elect governors as well. Most of the 435 seats in the House are safely controlled by one party or the other. This is a result of the growing political divide and the drawing of political districts to benefit the party in power.

Democrats narrowly control both chambers of Congress and the White House. But experts consider it likely that Republicans will do well in November. The most likely place for Republicans to pick up seats is the House of Representatives. Currently, Democrats hold 220 seats and Republicans hold 211 (see “Congress By the Numbers,” below). To take control of the House, Republicans need to win the seats they already have plus seven more.

The Senate is evenly divided: Republicans hold 50 seats, and Democrats hold 50 (counting the two Independents who caucus with them). But because Vice President Kamala Harris is a Democrat and, as the president of the Senate, casts the tie-breaking vote, Democrats control the chamber. Five of this year’s Senate races are considered close enough to go either way: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The Senate is evenly divided right now. Republicans hold 50 seats and Democrats hold 50 (counting the two Independents who caucus with them). But Vice President Kamala Harris is also a Democrat. As the president of the Senate, she casts the tie-breaking vote. As a result, Democrats control the chamber. Five of this year’s Senate races are considered close enough to go either way: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

President Biden has a lot of reasons to worry about his party losing control of Congress: Voters are angry about sky-high gas prices, soaring inflation rates that are making everything more expensive, a lingering pandemic, and a spate of mass shootings (see “What’s on Voters’ Minds,” below). Over the summer, Biden’s approval rating ranged from the low 40s to the low 30s, and pollsters are forecasting a tough election for Democrats.

If Democrats do manage to hang on to their majority, Biden stands a better chance of enacting his domestic agenda, which includes action on climate change, immigration reform, and protecting voting rights. If Republicans take over, Biden could spend the next two years facing a very tough road for passing new legislation and congressional investigations by his political opponents.

President Biden has a lot of reasons to worry about his party losing control of Congress, including angry voters. Americans are frustrated about sky-high gas prices, soaring inflation that’s driving up prices, an ongoing pandemic, and a string of mass shootings (see “What’s on Voters’ Minds,” below). Over the summer, Biden’s approval rating ranged from the low 40s to the low 30s. And pollsters are forecasting a tough election for Democrats.

If Democrats hang on to their majority, Biden stands a better chance of enacting his domestic agenda over the next two years. That plan includes action on climate change, immigration reform, and protecting voting rights. If Republicans take over, Biden might have a tough time trying to pass new legislation. He could also face congressional investigations by his political opponents.

“Midterms are an important way for voters to weigh in at the halfway point in a president’s term and render some kind of judgment,” says Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Unfortunately for the president, that judgment is often negative.”

In fact, the party out of power often makes large gains in midterms. In 37 of the 40 midterm elections since 1862, the president’s party has lost seats in Congress. Those numbers suggest that voters often want Congress to act as a brake on the president’s authority, says Kondik.

“Midterms are an important way for voters to weigh in at the halfway point in a president’s term and render some kind of judgment,” says Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Unfortunately for the president, that judgment is often negative.”

In fact, the party out of power often makes large gains in midterms. In 37 of the 40 midterm elections since 1862, the president’s party has lost seats in Congress. Those numbers suggest that voters often want Congress to act as a brake on the president’s authority, says Kondik.

Even if they do, that doesn’t necessarily mean Biden won’t be re-elected if he decides to run again in 2024.

“Midterms historically are not predictive of presidential elections,” Kondik says. “Even if the Democrats get slaughtered this November, it doesn’t mean much for 2024.”

That was the case for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, both Democrats who endured terrible midterm defeats during their first terms and then bounced back to get re-elected (see “Presidential Report Cards,” below). However, in Biden’s case, there’s the additional issue of his age. If he runs for re-election, he’ll be 82 by the time the winner of the 2024 race is inaugurated. That’s prompted talk about whether he should step aside and let someone else run as the Democratic candidate.

“The presidency is a monstrously taxing job, and the stark reality is the president would be closer to 90 than 80 at the end of a second term, and that would be a major issue,” says David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns.

The other issue for 2024 is whether former President Donald Trump will run again. Trump has endorsed a bunch of midterm candidates and is hoping to show that he’s still the most powerful force in the Republican Party.

Even if they do, that doesn’t mean Biden won’t be re-elected if he decides to run again in 2024.

“Midterms historically are not predictive of presidential elections,” Kondik says. “Even if the Democrats get slaughtered this November, it doesn’t mean much for 2024.”

That was the case for two recent Democratic presidents—Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. They both endured terrible midterm defeats during their first terms. Both then bounced back to get re-elected (see “Presidential Report Cards,” below). But Biden’s age creates another issue for him. If he runs for re-election, he’ll be 82 by the time the winner of the 2024 race is sworn into office. That’s led to talk about whether he should step aside and let someone else run as the Democratic candidate.

“The presidency is a monstrously taxing job, and the stark reality is the president would be closer to 90 than 80 at the end of a second term, and that would be a major issue,” says David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns.

The other issue for 2024 is whether former President Donald Trump will run again. Trump has endorsed a bunch of midterm candidates. He’s hoping to show that he’s still the most powerful force in the Republican Party.

One question that could have a big impact on midterm results is whether young people vote in meaningful numbers. Some polling indicates that youth turnout could match the record-breaking levels set in the 2018 midterms: 36 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds say they will definitely vote in November, according to the Spring 2022 Harvard Institute of Politics youth poll.

That may not seem like strong turnout, but compared with historical trends, it is. Between 1984 and 2014, youth voter turnout averaged
19 percent and never topped 21 percent. In both 2018 and 2020, high youth turnout was responsible for Democratic victories, according to John Della Volpe of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics.

“They have been leaning to the left a lot more than older generations, so when you have a tight race, young people’s turnout is really pivotal,” says Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, who studies youth civic engagement at Tufts University in Boston.

One question that could have a big impact on midterm results is whether young people vote in meaningful numbers. The youth turnout in the 2018 midterms set record-breaking levels. Some polling suggests that youth turnout could match that this year. Thirty-six percent of 18- to 29-year-olds say they will definitely vote in November, according to the Spring 2022 Harvard Institute of Politics youth poll.

That may not seem like a strong turnout, but compared with historical trends, it is. Between 1984 and 2014, youth voter turnout averaged 19 percent. It never topped 21 percent during that period. In both 2018 and 2020, high youth turnout was responsible for Democratic victories, according to John Della Volpe of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics.

“They have been leaning to the left a lot more than older generations, so when you have a tight race, young people’s turnout is really pivotal,” says Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, who studies youth civic engagement at Tufts University in Boston.

The hard part is getting voters—whether they’re Republicans, Democrats, or Independents—to understand that Congress has a real impact on their lives by making laws and deciding how to spend taxpayers’ money.

“Young people tend not to vote in midterms, and that’s a mistake,” says Rom, the Georgetown political scientist. “If younger voters want to have a say in the outcome—whether they want to protect abortion rights or expand gun rights—you don’t have a chance to have an influence if you don’t vote.”

That argument resonates with 17-year-old Charlotte Tragos, a senior at Archer School for Girls in Los Angeles.

“For our electorate to be representative of the people in America, we have to have young people at the table,” she says. “We’re the largest voting bloc, but we don’t act like it.”

Congress makes laws and decides how to spend taxpayers’ money. As a result, Congress has a real impact on people’s lives. The hard part is getting voters across party lines to understand that.

“Young people tend not to vote in midterms, and that’s a mistake,” says Rom, the Georgetown political scientist. “If younger voters want to have a say in the outcome—whether they want to protect abortion rights or expand gun rights—you don’t have a chance to have an influence if you don’t vote.”

That point makes sense to 17-year-old Charlotte Tragos, a senior at Archer School for Girls in Los Angeles.

“For our electorate to be representative of the people in America, we have to have young people at the table,” she says. “We’re the largest voting bloc, but we don’t act like it.”

With reporting by Reid J. Epstein, Jennifer Medina, and Michael D. Shear of The New York Times.

With reporting by Reid J. Epstein, Jennifer Medina, and Michael D. Shear of The New York Times.