One Nation, Under Surveillance

The Chinese government constantly watches the more than 1.4 billion people who live in China. Police cameras that are everywhere—on street corners and subway ceilings, in hotel lobbies and apartment buildings—capture their every move. Authorities track their phones, monitor their purchases, and censor their online chats.

Now, even their future is under surveillance.

The latest generation of Chinese technology digs through the vast amounts of data collected on people’s daily activities to find patterns and aberrations, promising to predict crimes or protests before they happen. Chinese government and business records indicate that the technology targets potential troublemakers in the eyes of the Chinese government—not only those with a criminal past but also vulnerable groups, including ethnic minorities, migrant workers, and people with a history of mental illness.

It can warn police if a victim of a fraud tries to travel to Beijing to petition the government for payment or if a drug user makes too many calls to the same number. It can alert police each time a person with a history of mental illness goes near a school.

The Chinese government constantly watches the more than 1.4 billion people who live in China. Police cameras are everywhere. They’re on street corners and subway ceilings, in hotel lobbies and apartment buildings. They capture every move people make. Authorities also track their phones, check their purchases, and censor their online chats.

Now, even their future is under watch.

The latest generation of Chinese technology digs through the huge amounts of data collected on people’s daily activities. It finds patterns and anything that might be strange. Through this process, it promises to predict crimes or protests before they happen. Chinese government and business records say that the technology targets potential troublemakers in the eyes of the Chinese government. But its aim isn’t limited to those with a criminal past. It also targets vulnerable groups, including ethnic minorities, migrant workers, and people with a history of mental illness.

It can warn police if a victim of fraud tries to travel to Beijing to petition the government for payment. It can flag if a drug user makes too many calls to the same number. And it can alert police each time a person with a history of mental illness goes near a school.

The new technology further extends the Chinese government’s social and political control over people’s lives, experts say. It’s part of a larger trend toward broad authoritarian control in China under President Xi Jinping. Since becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi has ousted officials he considers disloyal, intensified online censorship, and become more aggressive militarily (see “Tensions Over Taiwan,” below), in addition to launching a major upgrade of China’s surveillance capabilities.

Social stability has long been the government’s top priority, so experts say the government believes any threat to it must be eliminated. Xi has also used these new technologies to quell ethnic unrest and to enforce some of the world’s most severe Covid lockdowns. The ability for anyone to dissent, always limited, is rapidly disappearing.

“This is an invisible cage of technology imposed on society,” says Maya Wang, a senior China researcher with Human Rights Watch, an international human rights group, “the disproportionate brunt of it being felt by groups of people that are already severely discriminated against in Chinese society.”

Experts say that the new technology gives the Chinese government even more social and political control over people’s lives. It’s part of a larger move toward broad dictator-like control in China under President Xi Jinping. Xi became China’s leader in 2012. Since then, he has ousted officials he considers disloyal. He has increased online censorship and become more aggressive militarily (see “Tensions Over Taiwan,” below). He also has launched a major upgrade of China’s surveillance capabilities.

Social balance has long been the government’s top priority. Experts say that’s why the government believes it must get rid of any potential threat. Xi has also used these new technologies to crush ethnic unrest and to enforce some of the world’s strictest Covid lockdowns. The ability to dissent has always been limited in China. Now, it’s rapidly disappearing.

“This is an invisible cage of technology imposed on society,” says Maya Wang, a senior China researcher with Human Rights Watch, an international human rights group, “the disproportionate brunt of it being felt by groups of people that are already severely discriminated against in Chinese society.”

How did China become the world leader in this kind of technology? Some of the newest surveillance systems trace their origin to 2017, when one of China’s best-known entrepreneurs laid out a bold vision for the future: a computer system that could predict crimes.

The entrepreneur, Yin Qi, who founded Megvii, an artificial intelligence start-up, told Chinese state media that his technology could give police a search engine for crime, analyzing huge amounts of video footage to intuit patterns and warn authorities about suspicious behavior. He explained that if cameras detected a person spending too much time at a train station, for example, the system could flag a possible pickpocket.

“It would be scary if there were actually people watching behind the camera, but behind it is a system,” Yin said at the time. “It’s like the search engine we use every day to surf the internet—it’s very neutral. It’s supposed to be a benevolent thing.”

He added that with such monitoring, “the bad guys have nowhere to hide.”

His vision is slowly becoming a reality. Megvii presentations show how the company’s products assemble full digital dossiers for police:

“Build a multidimensional database that stores faces, photos, cars, cases, and incident records,” reads a description of one product, called “intelligent search.” The software analyzes the data to “dig out ordinary people who seem innocent” to “stifle illegal acts in the cradle.”

A Megvii spokesperson said in an emailed statement that the company is committed to the responsible development of artificial intelligence and that it’s concerned about making life safer and more convenient, “not about monitoring any particular group or individual.”

How did China become the world leader in this kind of technology? Some of the newest monitoring systems trace their origin to 2017. That year, one of China’s best-known entrepreneurs laid out a bold vision for the future: a computer system that could predict crimes.

The entrepreneur, Yin Qi, founded Megvii, an artificial intelligence start-up. He told Chinese state media that his technology could give police a search engine for crime. From huge amounts of video footage, it would find patterns and anything unusual, he explained. For example, if cameras detected a person spending too much time at a train station, the system could flag a possible pickpocket.

“It would be scary if there were actually people watching behind the camera, but behind it is a system,” Yin said at the time. “It’s like the search engine we use every day to surf the internet—it’s very neutral. It’s supposed to be a benevolent thing.”

He added that with such monitoring, “the bad guys have nowhere to hide.”

His vision is slowly becoming a reality. Megvii presentations show how the company’s products create full digital reports for police. “Build a multidimensional database that stores faces, photos, cars, cases, and incident records,” reads a description of one product, called “intelligent search.” The software analyzes the data to “dig out ordinary people who seem innocent” to “stifle illegal acts in the cradle.”

A Megvii spokesperson said in an emailed statement that the company is committed to the responsible development of artificial intelligence. The spokesperson also said that Megvii is concerned about making life safer and easier, “not about monitoring any particular group or individual.”

When police in Zhouning, a rural county in Fujian province, bought a new set of 439 cameras in 2018, they listed where each would go. Some hung above intersections and others near schools. Nine were installed outside the homes of people with something in common: mental illness.

Documents indicate that surveillance often targets those with mental illness, convicted criminals, fugitives, drug users, suspected terrorists, political agitators, and petitioners (a Chinese term for people who try to file complaints with higher authorities about government wrongdoing). Other systems target migrant workers, teens who aren’t in school and don’t have jobs, ethnic minorities, foreigners, and those infected with H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.

Authorities decide who is suspicious, and there’s often no process to notify people when they do. Once individuals are in a database of people to be watched, they’re rarely removed, say experts, who worry that the new technologies reinforce disparities within China, imposing surveillance on the least fortunate parts of its population.

Police in Zhouning, a rural county in Fujian province, bought a new set of 439 cameras in 2018. At the time, they listed where each would go. Some hung above intersections and others near schools. Nine were installed outside the homes of people with something in common: mental illness.

Documents show that surveillance often targets those with mental illness, convicted criminals, fugitives, drug users, suspected terrorists, political agitators, and petitioners (a Chinese term for people who try to file complaints with higher authorities about government wrongdoing). Other systems target migrant workers, teens who aren’t in school and don’t have jobs, ethnic minorities, and foreigners. They also target those infected with H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.

Authorities decide who is suspicious, and there’s often no process to notify people when they do. Experts say that once individuals are in a database of people to be watched, they’re rarely removed. They also argue that those who are the least fortunate get hit the hardest by monitoring efforts. This has experts worried that these new technologies are increasing the growing gaps within China.

In many cases the software goes further than simply targeting a population. It can allow authorities to set up digital alerts to indicate a possible threat. One system’s interface allows police to devise their own early warnings. For example, police can set the system to send a warning each time two people with a history of drug use check into the same hotel or when four people with a history of protest enter the same park.

In Shanghai, a publication run by China’s ruling Communist Party describes how authorities use software to identify those who exceed normal water and electricity use. The system sends a “digital whistle” to police when it finds suspicious consumption patterns. The tactic is likely meant to detect migrant workers, who often live together in close quarters to save money. Police often suspect that migrant workers bring crime into communities, experts say.

The software often goes further than simply targeting a population. It can allow authorities to set up digital alerts to flag a possible threat. One system’s programming allows police to set their own early warnings. For example, police can set the system to send a warning each time two people with a history of drug use check into the same hotel or when four people with a history of protest enter the same park.

In Shanghai, a publication run by China’s ruling Communist Party describes how authorities use software to identify those who use more water and electricity than normal. The system sends a “digital whistle” to police when it finds unusual usage patterns. The tactic is likely meant to detect migrant workers. They often live together in close quarters to save money. Experts say that police often suspect that migrant workers bring crime into communities.

Under Xi, official efforts to control petitioners, people who want to complain to the government, have grown increasingly invasive.

In 2022, police in Tianjin bought software that collects data on thousands of petitioners and aims to predict protests. The system scores people on the likelihood that they’ll travel to Beijing to press their claims. According to human rights groups, local officials want to prevent such trips to avoid political embarrassment or exposure of wrongdoing. And the central government doesn’t want groups of disgruntled citizens gathering in the capital.

Avoiding all the digital trip wires is much harder than it used to be. In the past, Zhang Yuqiao, a 74-year-old man who has been petitioning the government for most of his adult life, could simply stay off the main highways to dodge authorities and make his way to Beijing to fight for compensation over the torture of his parents a long time ago.

Under Xi, official efforts to control petitioners, people who want to complain to the government, have become more invasive.

In 2022, police in Tianjin bought software that collects data on thousands of petitioners and aims to predict protests. The system scores people on the likelihood that they’ll travel to Beijing to press their claims. According to human rights groups, local officials want to stop such trips to avoid political shame or exposure of wrongdoing. And the central government doesn’t want groups of angry citizens gathering in the capital.

Avoiding all the digital trip wires is much harder than it used to be. Zhang Yuqiao, a 74-year-old man, has been petitioning the government for most of his adult life. In the past, he could simply stay off the main highways to dodge authorities. Then, he’d be safe to make his way to Beijing. Once there, he’d continue his fight for justice for his parents who were tortured a long time ago.

Now Zhang has to use spy movie tactics to circumvent surveillance. When he traveled to Beijing in January from his village in Shandong province, he turned off his phone and paid for transportation in cash to minimize his digital footprint. He bought train tickets to the wrong destination to foil police tracking. He hired private drivers to get around checkpoints where his identification card would set off an alarm.

Zhang has noticed that now whenever he turns off his phone, officers show up at his house to check that he hasn’t left on a trip to Beijing.

Even if police systems can’t accurately predict behavior, authorities may consider them successful because they act as a deterrent, says Noam Yuchtman, an economics professor at the London School of Economics who has studied the impact of surveillance in China.

Now Zhang has to use spy movie tactics to avoid being tracked. He traveled to Beijing in January from his village in Shandong province. During the trip, he turned off his phone and paid for transportation in cash to reduce his digital footprint. He bought train tickets to the wrong destination to confuse the police. He hired private drivers to get around checkpoints where his identification card would set off an alarm.

Zhang has noticed that now whenever he turns off his phone, officers show up at his house. They do so to check that he hasn’t left on a trip to Beijing.

Even if police systems can’t accurately predict behavior, authorities may consider them successful because they act as a deterrent, says Noam Yuchtman, an economics professor at the London School of Economics who has studied the impact of surveillance in China.

“In a context where there isn’t real political accountability,” having a system that frequently sends police officers “can work pretty well” at discouraging unrest, he says.

Zhang is most frustrated by the ways technology has cut off those in political power from regular people.

“The authorities do not seriously solve problems but do whatever it takes to silence the people who raise the problems,” he says. “This is a big step backward for society.”

Zhang says that he still believes in the power of technology to do good but that in the wrong hands it can trap ordinary people.

“Now,” he says, “the entire country is a net.”

“In a context where there isn’t real political accountability,” having a system that frequently sends police officers “can work pretty well” at discouraging unrest, he says.

Zhang is most bothered by how technology has cut off those in political power from regular people.

“The authorities do not seriously solve problems but do whatever it takes to silence the people who raise the problems,” he says. “This is a big step backward for society.”

Zhang says that technology has the power to do good. Still, in the wrong hands it can trap ordinary people, he adds.

“Now,” he says, “the entire country is a net.”

Paul Mozur, Muyi Xiao, and John Liu cover China for The New York Times.

Paul Mozur, Muyi Xiao, and John Liu cover China for The New York Times.