The Rematch

Many Americans have been dreading it for months: the possibility that the same two men who fought bitterly for the White House in 2020 would remain their parties’ standard-bearers in 2024.

But President Joe Biden ran largely unopposed in the Democratic primary, and former President Donald Trump very quickly dispatched his rivals on the Republican side, with his last challenger, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, exiting the race in early March. Both Biden and Trump clinched their respective nominations soon after by racking up the necessary primary delegates in early election states.

That sets up the upcoming general election as the first face-off between a president and former president since Theodore Roosevelt took on William Howard Taft in 1912. Add to it the fact that polls show many Americans don’t like either of the two candidates—and that the criminal justice system is playing a large role in the campaign—and you have the makings of a long, wild ride to Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024.

“There is nothing quite like this that we have been through,” says Bob Shrum, a former senior adviser to Democratic candidates. “It’s going to be a campaign unlike any we’ve ever seen.”

Many Americans have been dreading the possibility that the same two men who fought for the White House in 2020 would remain their parties’ candidates in 2024.

President Joe Biden ran largely unopposed in the Democratic primary. Former President Donald Trump very quickly defeated his rivals on the Republican side. His last challenger, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, left the race in early March. Both Biden and Trump clinched nominations by winning the necessary primary delegates in early election states.

The upcoming general election is the first face-off between a president and former president since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912. Polls show many Americans don’t like either of the two candidates. This could make it a long, wild ride to Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024.

“There is nothing quite like this that we have been through,” says Bob Shrum, a former senior adviser to Democratic candidates. “It’s going to be a campaign unlike any we’ve ever seen.”

Much has changed since Biden defeated Trump in 2020. The U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, Russia invaded Ukraine, the Covid pandemic receded, and Israel and Hamas began a brutal war. The stock market soared, inflation and interest rates spiked—but unemployment didn’t. The Supreme Court ended the federal right to an abortion, border crossings surged to record highs, and a mob of Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, in a riot that resulted in federal criminal charges against more than 1,200 people, including Trump himself (see “The Supreme Court’s Role,” below).

Biden is in a position where he’d normally be the favorite in this race: He’s an incumbent president running for reelection amid a generally healthy economy, against an opponent accused of multiple federal crimes.

But voters haven’t been favoring Biden in the way they once did. Nearly three-quarters of voters, including a majority of Democrats, say he’s too old to be an effective chief executive. Biden, America’s oldest president, would be 86 at the end of a second term; Trump would be the second-oldest, at 82.

According to recent polls, Trump began the general election campaign in the lead. In the first months of the year, Trump led nearly every poll in the important swing states of Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020—enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency if the election were held today.

Much has changed since Biden defeated Trump in 2020. The U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas began a brutal war. The Covid pandemic ended. The stock market soared, inflation and interest rates rose but unemployment didn’t. The Supreme Court ended the federal right to an abortion. Border crossings were at record highs. A mob of Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The riot resulted in federal criminal charges against more than 1,200 people, including Trump himself (see “The Supreme Court’s Role,” below).

Biden is in a position where he’d normally be the favorite in this race. He’s an incumbent president running for reelection amid a generally healthy economy and against an opponent accused of multiple federal crimes.

But voters haven’t been supporting Biden in the way they once did. Nearly three-quarters of voters, including a majority of Democrats, say he’s too old to be an effective chief executive. Biden is already America’s oldest president. He would be 86 at the end of a second term, and Trump would be the second-oldest, at 82.

According to recent polls, Trump began the general election campaign in the lead. At the beginning of the year, Trump led nearly every poll in the important swing states of Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020. This would be enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency if the election were held today.

Early polls aren’t always predictive—but that doesn’t mean they’re not worth taking seriously. Voters know these candidates very well, and both have been in public life for decades.

Neither of them has forged unity in his own party, let alone the nation at large. With Biden’s approval rating stuck in the mid-30s percentage-wise, many Democrats had held out hope that a younger, more vibrant candidate with name recognition, perhaps a sitting governor like Gavin Newsom of California, would move to take on a sitting president from his own party, but that’s rarely done.

Even though Trump beat out his competitors in the primaries, a sizeable number of Republican voters remain opposed to him because they feel he puts his own priorities before those of the nation.

As he did in 2020, Biden is likely to pitch his reelection as vital to American democracy and the nation’s role in the world.

“The threat to democracy must be defended,” Biden told Americans in his State of the Union address in March.

Trump has campaigned on a return to policies that he says made everyday life better for more Americans.

“We’ve watched our country take a great beating over the last three years,” Trump told supporters in March following his Super Tuesday victory.

The unpopularity of both Trump and Biden sets up an agonizing choice for millions of voters left to pick between two candidates they dislike. It also sets up a challenging election for pollsters, as these voters probably have more volatile preferences. Many may not come to a firm decision until they absolutely have to—at the ballot box.

Young people are positioned to play a decisive role in the outcome of this year’s general election. Yet many are discouraged by both of the top options—and by the increasingly nasty politics that now prevails.

“The biggest thing that my generation is begging for is for someone to be honest,” says University of Wisconsin-Madison student Brynn Teeling, 20. “And that is something we’re lacking from both sides.”

Early polls aren’t always predictive. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be taken seriously. Because both have been in public life for decades, voters know these candidates well.

Neither of them has created unity in his own party, let alone the nation at large. Biden’s approval rating is stuck in the mid-30s percentage-wise. Many Democrats hoped that a younger, more vibrant candidate with name recognition, someone like Governor Gavin Newsom of California, would move to take on a sitting president from his own party. But that is rarely done.

Even though Trump beat out his competitors in the primaries, a sizeable number of Republican voters remain opposed to him because they feel he puts his own priorities before those of the nation.

As he did in 2020, Biden is likely to pitch his reelection as vital to American democracy and the nation’s role in the world.

“The threat to democracy must be defended,” Biden told Americans in his State of the Union address in March.

Trump has campaigned on a return to policies that he says made everyday life better for more Americans.

“We’ve watched our country take a great beating over the last three years,” Trump told supporters in March following his Super Tuesday victory.

The unpopularity of both Trump and Biden sets up a hard choice for millions of voters left to pick between two candidates they dislike.

It also sets up a challenging election for pollsters because these voters may have more volatile preferences. Many may not come to a firm decision until they absolutely have to cast a vote at the ballot box.

Young people are positioned to play an important role in the outcome of this year’s general election. Yet many are discouraged by both options and by the increasingly nasty politics that exists.

“The biggest thing that my generation is begging for is for someone to be honest,” says University of Wisconsin-Madison student Brynn Teeling, 20. “And that is something we’re lacking from both sides.”