President On Trial

The House of Representatives voted on December 18 to impeach President Trump. 

It was only the third time in American history that a president has been impeached, and the decision to take such an extraordinary step fell largely along party lines. 

“It represents not just a historical rarity,” says Frank Bowman, a law professor at the University of Missouri and an expert on impeachment, “but also a pretty serious judgment of one house of the legislature that an American president has done something bad enough that he ought to be removed from office before the American public has a chance to judge for themselves.”

The Founding Fathers created the impeachment process as a way to remove a president for significant wrongdoing. The House approved two articles of impeachment, voting 230 to 197 to charge President Trump with abuse of power and 229 to 198 to charge him with obstruction of Congress. 

The next step is a trial in the Senate. What happens there will determine the future of Trump’s presidency. Here’s a guide to following the action. 

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on December 18 to impeach President Trump. It was only the third time in American history that a president has been impeached. The decision to take such a huge step fell largely along party lines.

“It represents not just a historical rarity,” says Frank Bowman, a law professor at the University of Missouri and an expert on impeachment, “but also a pretty serious judgment of one house of the legislature that an American president has done something bad enough that he ought to be removed from office before the American public has a chance to judge for themselves.”

The Founding Fathers created the impeachment process as a way to remove a president for significant wrongdoing. The House approved two articles of impeachment. Representatives voted 230 to 197 to charge President Trump with abuse of power. On the second charge against him, obstruction of Congress, they voted 229 to 198.

The next step is a trial in the Senate. What happens there will determine the future of Trump’s presidency. Here’s a guide to following the action.

The outlines are the same: A group of Democrats from the House, known as House managers, will serve as prosecutors, laying out the case against Trump (see “Sitting in Judgment,” below). The president’s own lawyers will defend him. Chief Justice John G. Roberts will preside over the proceedings, much as a judge would in a trial. All 100 senators will act as the jury, each casting one vote. A two-thirds majority (67 senators) is needed to convict the president.

The outlines are the same. A group of Democrats from the House, known as House managers, will serve as prosecutors. They will lay out the case against Trump (see “Sitting in Judgment,” below). The president’s own lawyers will defend him. Chief Justice John G. Roberts will preside over the proceedings, much as a judge would in a trial. All 100 senators will act as the jury. Each one of them will cast a vote. A two-thirds majority (67 senators) is needed to convict the president.

But there are also some important ways in which this trial will differ from a court trial. First of all, each time the Senate considers articles of impeachment, it establishes a new set of rules for how the trial will be handled, whereas courts function with a fixed set of rules. And the chief justice will not have the final say as a judge would; he can be overruled on procedural issues if a majority of senators vote to do so. 

“How it plays out is going to be almost entirely a political choice,” says Bowman. “That’s what makes this so different.”

But there are also some important ways in which this trial will differ from a court trial. First of all, courts function with a fixed set of rules. But things change each time the Senate considers articles of impeachment. In other words, new rules for how Senate trials will be handled get set ahead of every case. And the chief justice will not have the final say, as a judge would. In fact, he can be overruled on procedural issues if a majority of senators vote to do so.

“How it plays out is going to be almost entirely a political choice,” says Bowman. “That’s what makes this so different.”

The Democrats say Trump used the power of the presidency to pressure Ukrainian leaders to publicly launch investigations into former Vice President Joe Biden, a top Democratic challenger in the 2020 election. Several witnesses testified that the Trump administration, in an effort to pressure Ukrainian officials to announce those investigations, withheld some $400 million in military aid that Congress had approved. 

Democrats are saying that by soliciting foreign interference in the 2020 election, the president abused the powers of the Oval Office for his own personal gain.

The Democrats say Trump used the power of the presidency to pressure Ukrainian leaders to publicly launch investigations into former Vice President Joe Biden, a top Democratic challenger in the 2020 election. Several witnesses testified that the Trump administration withheld some $400 million in military aid that Congress had approved. These witnesses say that move was part of Trump’s efforts to pressure Ukrainian officials to announce those investigations.

Democrats say that Trump solicited foreign interference in the 2020 election. In doing so, they say the president abused the powers of the Oval Office for his own personal gain.

President Trump has denied any wrongdoing and called the impeachment proceedings “presidential harassment.” Republicans in Congress have mostly defended Trump by saying this is much ado about nothing: After all, they reason, Ukraine ended up getting the U.S. military aid, and Ukraine never did announce an investigation into Biden. And regardless of what happened, they say, this isn’t serious enough to warrant removal from office.

President Trump has denied any wrongdoing and called the impeachment proceedings “presidential harassment.” Republicans in Congress have mostly defended Trump. They’re saying this is much ado about nothing. After all, they reason, Ukraine ended up getting the U.S. military aid. They also note that Ukraine never announced an investigation into Biden. And they say that nothing serious enough to warrant removal from office has occurred.

Because the Senate is controlled by Republicans who are inclined to defend the president, most observers expect Trump to be acquitted. If that happens, Trump remains in office.  

However, if 20 Republican senators join the 47* Democrats—who are likely to vote to convict Trump on at least one article of impeachment—then President Trump would be removed from office. Under Article 2 of the Constitution, Vice President Mike Pence would succeed him and become president. This has never happened before. (Three presidents have faced impeachment: Andrew Johnson was acquitted by the Senate in 1866, as was Bill Clinton in 1999. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 with his impeachment gathering steam in the House.) 

Even though most observers expect Trump to survive the vote, Ross Garber, an expert on impeachment at Tulane University in New Orleans, says history shows us that circumstances can change quickly. 

“Surprises can happen,” he says. “Nixon’s support was very solid until suddenly the bottom dropped out.” 

The Senate is controlled by Republicans, who are inclined to defend the president. That’s why most observers expect Trump to be acquitted. If that happens, Trump remains in office.

The Democrats from the Senate are likely to vote to convict Trump on at least one article of impeachment. If 20 Republican senators join the 47* Democrats, then President Trump would be removed from office. Under Article 2 of the Constitution, Vice President Mike Pence would succeed him and become president. This has never happened before. (Three presidents have faced impeachment. Andrew Johnson was acquitted by the Senate in 1866, as was Bill Clinton in 1999. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 with his impeachment gathering steam in the House.)

Most observers expect Trump to survive the vote. Still, Ross Garber, an expert on impeachment at Tulane University in New Orleans, says history shows us that circumstances can change quickly.

“Surprises can happen,” he says. “Nixon’s support was very solid until suddenly the bottom dropped out.”

Here, we’re in uncharted territory. There has never before been an impeached president on the ballot seeking re-election. Andrew Johnson didn’t get his party’s nomination in 1868. Bill Clinton was in his second term when he was impeached, so he couldn’t run in 2000. But President Trump is expected to be the Republican nominee in November.

“This is not a gold star in the history books,” says Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “But I’m not sure how much effect it’s going to have on the election. Everybody already knows who they’re voting for.” 

So far, Trump’s base of supporters hasn’t been swayed by the revelations of the impeachment inquiry or the vote itself. But the president’s approval rating has hovered around 40 percent for most of his presidency, so he might need to reach beyond his base to win in November. 

And if the impeachment hasn’t swayed Trump’s core supporters, there’s little doubt that it has fired up his opponents. “Impeachment will energize the Democratic base, and that’s going to increase turnout,” Sabato says. “Turnout is going to break all records.”

^{*Includes two Independents who caucus with Democrats}

Here, we’re in uncharted territory. There has never before been an impeached president on the ballot seeking re-election. Andrew Johnson didn’t get his party’s nomination in 1868. Bill Clinton was in his second term when he was impeached, so he couldn’t run in 2000. But President Trump is expected to be the Republican nominee in November.

“This is not a gold star in the history books,” says Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “But I’m not sure how much effect it’s going to have on the election. Everybody already knows who they’re voting for.”

So far, Trump’s base of supporters hasn’t been swayed by the revelations of the impeachment inquiry or the vote itself. But the president’s approval rating has hovered around 40 percent for most of his presidency. That signals that he might need to reach beyond his base to win in November.

And if the impeachment hasn’t swayed Trump’s core supporters, there’s little doubt that it has fired up his opponents. “Impeachment will energize the Democratic base, and that’s going to increase turnout,” Sabato says. “Turnout is going to break all records.”

_{*Includes two Independents who caucus with Democrats}