Seeking independence: People in Edinburgh, Scotland, rally in favor of leaving the U.K., 2019.

The Not-So-United Kingdom?

Will Britain’s decision to leave the European Union cause the U.K. to break apart?

Jim McMahon

In 2014, when the Scottish people voted in a referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom, Adam Cubak wasn’t at all sure that Scotland should be its own country.

That referendum failed. But since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016, known as “Brexit,” Cubak has changed his mind.

“Brexit has made me want independence more,” says Cubak, 21, a senior at the University of Glasgow. “Now I feel like Scottish independence is inevitable.”

After four long years of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union, Britain’s exit from the E.U. is starting to take effect. But Brexit is having unintended ripple effects within the U.K. In Scotland, support for Scottish independence is growing. And in Northern Ireland, the Brexit deal has inflamed old tensions that date back more than a century.

This is causing many to ask whether Brexit might ultimately lead the United Kingdom—England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (see map)—to break apart.

“Brexit has not created new tensions, but it’s unearthed and exacerbated existing tensions in both Scotland and Northern Ireland,” says Amanda Sloat of the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C. “Brexit has the potential to be a turning point in both places.”

Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations is even more blunt: “It’s completely conceivable that over the next decade or so, the United Kingdom will not hold together.”

In 2014, the Scottish people voted in a referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom. At the time, Adam Cubak wasn’t at all sure that Scotland should be its own country.

That referendum failed. Then, in 2016, the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. That move become known as “Brexit.” It’s made Cubak change his mind.

“Brexit has made me want independence more,” says Cubak, 21, a senior at the University of Glasgow. “Now, I feel like Scottish independence is inevitable.”

The negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have stretched over the last four years. Now, Britain’s exit from the E.U. is starting to take effect. But Brexit is having unintended ripple effects within the United Kingdom. The U.K. is made up of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (see map). In Scotland, support for Scottish independence is growing. And in Northern Ireland, the Brexit deal has worsened old tensions that date back more than a century.

This is causing many to ask whether Brexit might ultimately lead the United Kingdom to break apart.

“Brexit has not created new tensions, but it’s unearthed and exacerbated existing tensions in both Scotland and Northern Ireland,” says Amanda Sloat of the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C. “Brexit has the potential to be a turning point in both places.”

Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations is even more blunt: “It’s completely conceivable that over the next decade or so, the United Kingdom will not hold together.”

Signs of Trouble

In 2016, 52 percent of voters in the U.K. chose to leave the European Union, a federation of European countries that share free trade and open borders (see “What is Brexit?”). But support for leaving the E.U., which was formally established in 1993, was not uniform across the U.K.: In both Scotland and Northern Ireland, a majority of voters wanted to remain part of the E.U.

Brexit became official in January, and the final details on how trade and borders will be managed are still being worked out. But already there are signs of trouble in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.

In Scotland, Brexit has deepened support for independence, which has long been fueled by Scots’ pride in their separate identity. After Scotland rejected breaking away from the U.K. in the 2014 referendum, most people thought the issue was settled. But that was before Britain voted to leave the European Union. Support for the E.U. is high in Scotland, and 62 percent of Scots opposed leaving the E.U. Many feel they are being forced to go along with it.

“Without doubt, Brexit has increased support for [Scottish] independence, especially among the young,” says Timothy Peace, a politics professor at the University of Glasgow.

Now, for the first time, polls are consistently showing that a majority of Scots support independence. Scottish elections will be held in May, and the Scottish National Party, which favors independence, is expected to gain ground. That will increase the pressure for another referendum on Scottish independence, experts say.

In 2016, 52 percent of voters in the U.K. chose to leave the European Union. The E.U. is a federation of European countries that share free trade and open borders (see “What is Brexit?”). It was formally established in 1993. Support for leaving the E.U. wasn’t the same across the U.K. In both Scotland and Northern Ireland, a majority of voters wanted to remain part of the E.U.

Brexit became official in January. Some final details are still unsettled, including the management of trade and borders. But already there are signs of trouble in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The Scots take pride in their separate identity. That’s long fueled calls for independence. Now, Brexit has deepened support for Scottish independence. After Scotland rejected breaking away from the U.K. in the 2014 referendum, most people thought the issue was settled. But that was before Britain voted to leave the European Union. Support for the E.U. is high in Scotland. In fact, 62 percent of Scots were against leaving the E.U. Many feel they are being forced to go along with it.

“Without doubt, Brexit has increased support for [Scottish] independence, especially among the young,” says Timothy Peace, a politics professor at the University of Glasgow.

Now, for the first time, polls are consistently showing that a majority of Scots support independence. Scottish elections will be held in May. This time around, the Scottish National Party is expected to gain ground. The party favors independence. That will increase the pressure for another referendum on Scottish independence, experts say.

Northern Ireland

The impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland is potentially the most troubling because of the region’s history. When most of Ireland won its independence from the U.K. in 1922 (see “U.K. Key Dates”), Northern Ireland remained part of the United Kingdom. That division led to decades of religious-based strife and violence in Northern Ireland between Catholics, who largely favored reunification with mostly Catholic Ireland, and Protestants, who largely wanted to remain part of the mostly Protestant U.K.

In 1998, a peace agreement ended the violence and allowed people for the first time to move easily back and forth over the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That was possible because both Ireland and the U.K. were part of the European Union.

But now that Britain is leaving the E.U., that border has again become an issue, and experts say Northern Ireland is being pulled closer to Ireland and away from the rest of the U.K.   

The impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland is potentially the most troubling. That’s because of the region’s history. Most of Ireland won its independence from the U.K. in 1922 (see “U.K. Key Dates”). But Northern Ireland remained part of the United Kingdom. That division led to decades of religious-based strife and violence in Northern Ireland between Catholics and Protestants. Catholics in the region largely favored reunification with mostly Catholic Ireland. The Protestants there largely wanted to remain part of the mostly Protestant U.K.

Support for Scottish independence is rising.

In 1998, a peace agreement ended the violence and allowed people for the first time to move easily back and forth over the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That was possible because both Ireland and the U.K. were part of the European Union.

But now that Britain is leaving the E.U., that border has again become an issue, and experts say Northern Ireland is being pulled closer to Ireland and away from the rest of the U.K.   

“Northern Ireland is potentially going to drift out of the U.K.’s orbit and ultimately become part of the Republic of Ireland,” says Kupchan.

If these tensions increase over time, Sloat of Brookings wonders if the British leaders who fought so hard to make Brexit happen may come to regret it.

“The irony is that the U.K. has succeeded in getting itself out of the European Union,” she says, “but at what cost domestically?”

In 1998, a peace agreement ended the violence. It also allowed people for the first time to move easily back and forth over the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That was possible because both Ireland and the U.K. were part of the European Union.

But now that Britain is leaving the E.U., that border has again become an issue. Experts say Northern Ireland is being pulled closer to Ireland and away from the rest of the U.K.

“Northern Ireland is potentially going to drift out of the U.K.’s orbit and ultimately become part of the Republic of Ireland,” says Kupchan.

It’s possible that these tensions might increase over time. If that happens, Sloat of Brookings wonders if the British leaders who fought so hard to make Brexit happen may come to regret it.

“The irony is that the U.K. has succeeded in getting itself out of the European Union,” she says, “but at what cost domestically?”

U.K. Key Dates

1536: Wales

chrisdorney/Shutterstock.com

King Henry VIII

Under King Henry VIII, Wales comes under England’s control.

Under King Henry VIII, Wales comes under England’s control.

1707: Great Britain

The Acts of Union join England, Wales, and Scotland into a single kingdom called Great Britain.

The Acts of Union join England, Wales, and Scotland into a single kingdom called Great Britain.

1801: United Kingdom

With the addition of Ireland, the U.K. is established. 

With the addition of Ireland, the U.K. is established. 

1922: Irish Independence

Most of Ireland gains independence, but Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom.

Most of Ireland gains independence, but Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom.

1973: European Union

The U.K. joins the European Economic Community, the precursor to the E.U., which is formally established in 1993.

The U.K. joins the European Economic Community, the precursor to the E.U., which is formally established in 1993.

2016: Brexit

The U.K. votes in a referendum to leave the E.U. Brexit takes effect in 2020. 

The U.K. votes in a referendum to leave the E.U. Brexit takes effect in 2020. 

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