In 2014, the Scottish people voted in a referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom. At the time, Adam Cubak wasn’t at all sure that Scotland should be its own country.
That referendum failed. Then, in 2016, the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. That move become known as “Brexit.” It’s made Cubak change his mind.
“Brexit has made me want independence more,” says Cubak, 21, a senior at the University of Glasgow. “Now, I feel like Scottish independence is inevitable.”
The negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have stretched over the last four years. Now, Britain’s exit from the E.U. is starting to take effect. But Brexit is having unintended ripple effects within the United Kingdom. The U.K. is made up of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (see map). In Scotland, support for Scottish independence is growing. And in Northern Ireland, the Brexit deal has worsened old tensions that date back more than a century.
This is causing many to ask whether Brexit might ultimately lead the United Kingdom to break apart.
“Brexit has not created new tensions, but it’s unearthed and exacerbated existing tensions in both Scotland and Northern Ireland,” says Amanda Sloat of the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C. “Brexit has the potential to be a turning point in both places.”
Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations is even more blunt: “It’s completely conceivable that over the next decade or so, the United Kingdom will not hold together.”