More Troubles Ahead?

Pauline Harte was 19 years old when she lost a leg to a massive car bomb that exploded in Omagh, Northern Ireland, in 1998. The bombing, which killed 29 people, was the last and single-deadliest attack in the decades-long sectarian conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles.

Harte, now 43, who endured years of skin grafts to treat severe burns on her lower body, has four children and works as an art teacher. Like many in Northern Ireland, she had hoped that the violent conflict that ended a quarter century ago would remain in the past. So she was deeply shaken last February when gunmen associated with a Catholic militant group shot a police detective, one of many signs of renewed tensions that some fear could reignite the conflict.

“I lost my leg because of that violence,” says Harte. “I don’t want my children to grow up in that kind of world.”

Pauline Harte was 19 years old when she lost a leg to a massive car bomb that exploded in Omagh, Northern Ireland, in 1998. The bombing killed 29 people. It was the last and single-deadliest attack in the decades-long sectarian conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles.

Harte endured years of skin grafts to treat severe burns on her lower body. Now 43, she has four children and works as an art teacher. Like many in Northern Ireland, she had hoped that the violent conflict that ended a quarter century ago would remain in the past. So she was deeply shaken last February when gunmen associated with a Catholic militant group shot a police detective. It was one of many signs of renewed tensions that some fear could reignite the conflict.

“I lost my leg because of that violence,” says Harte. “I don’t want my children to grow up in that kind of world.”

At issue during the Troubles was the question of who should control Northern Ireland, historically part of Ireland but now in the United Kingdom, along with England, Scotland, and Wales (see “What Is Northern Ireland?” below). On one side were the mostly Catholic nationalists (also called republicans), who wanted to leave the U.K. and rejoin a united Ireland, with its Catholic majority. On the other side were the loyalists (also called unionists), who were mostly Protestant and wanted to remain part of the U.K. Paramilitary groups on both sides waged a civil war marked by riots, car bombings, arson, and revenge killings that left some 3,600 dead.

The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 ended the Troubles, ushering in a new era of peace and economic growth. The peace deal halted the fighting and set up a power-sharing government that includes both Protestants and Catholics. Increasingly, Northern Ireland began to look more like most Western European countries—a secular society in which the younger generation had little interest in sectarian divisions.

At issue during the Troubles was the question of who should control Northern Ireland. Historically it was part of Ireland, but now it is in the United Kingdom, along with England, Scotland, and Wales (see “What Is Northern Ireland?” below).

On one side were the mostly Catholic nationalists (also called republicans). They wanted to leave the U.K. and rejoin a united Ireland, with its Catholic majority. On the other side were the loyalists (also called unionists). They were mostly Protestant and wanted to remain part of the U.K. Paramilitary groups on both sides waged a civil war. It was marked by riots, car bombings, arson, and revenge killings. It left some 3,600 dead.

The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 ended the Troubles. It ushered in a new era of peace and economic growth.

The peace deal halted the fighting. It set up a power-sharing government that includes both Protestants and Catholics. Northern Ireland began to look more like most Western European countries. It is increasingly a secular society in which the younger generation had little interest in sectarian divisions.

But recently signs of instability have been growing in Northern Ireland. For most of the past seven years, its legislature has ceased to function because one of the major Protestant political parties walked out in protest. In 2021, a decision not to prosecute some 2,000 people who had violated Covid restrictions the previous year to attend a Catholic political leader’s funeral sparked days of riots in Belfast. And Brexit, the United Kingdom’s 2021 departure from the European Union, has exacerbated tensions in Northern Ireland by putting the E.U. border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

“The peace process in Northern Ireland relied on a careful balance between Britain and Ireland—Northern Ireland being both British and Irish—and within the E.U., that was possible,” says Katy Hayward, a professor of political sociology at Queen’s University Belfast, adding, “That’s been very much disrupted by Brexit.”

But recently signs of instability have been growing in Northern Ireland.

For most of the past seven years, its legislature has ceased to function. That’s because one of the major Protestant political parties walked out in protest. In 2021, a decision not to prosecute some 2,000 people who had violated Covid restrictions the previous year to attend a Catholic political leader’s funeral sparked days of riots in Belfast. And Brexit, the United Kingdom’s 2021 departure from the European Union, has exacerbated tensions in Northern Ireland. It created the E.U. border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

“The peace process in Northern Ireland relied on a careful balance between Britain and Ireland—Northern Ireland being both British and Irish—and within the E.U., that was possible,” says Katy Hayward. Hayward is a professor of political sociology at Queen’s University Belfast. She adds, “That’s been very much disrupted by Brexit.”

Then in February, members of a Catholic militant group shot and seriously injured John Caldwell, an off-duty police officer who was loading soccer balls into his car outside a youth sports center.

The region’s evolving demographics are also feeding tensions. Historically, Protestants have been in the majority and controlled many of Northern Ireland’s levers of power. But the 2021 census showed that Catholics now outnumber Protestants for the first time. This shift has alarmed many Protestants, who fear that a Catholic majority might lead to unification with the Republic of Ireland. Under the Good Friday Agreement, that would be allowed if majorities in both Ireland and Northern Ireland favor it.

Education is another aggravating factor. Schools remains starkly divided along religious lines, with fewer than 10 percent of students attending religiously integrated schools.

That’s a problem, says Darren McKinstry, of the Equality Commission for Northern Ireland, because shared learning plays an important role in re-establishing bonds after a conflict.

“This long experience of separate education has been a lost opportunity for everyone,” McKinstry says.

Then in February, members of a Catholic militant group shot and seriously injured John Caldwell, an off-duty police officer. He was loading soccer balls into his car outside a youth sports center.

The region’s evolving demographics are also feeding tensions. Historically, Protestants have been in the majority. They have controlled many of Northern Ireland’s levers of power. But the 2021 census showed that Catholics now outnumber Protestants for the first time. This shift has alarmed many Protestants. They fear that a Catholic majority might lead to unification with the Republic of Ireland. Under the Good Friday Agreement, that would be allowed if majorities in both Ireland and Northern Ireland favor it.

Education is another aggravating factor. Schools remain starkly divided along religious lines. Fewer than 10 percent of students attend religiously integrated schools.

That’s a problem, says Darren McKinstry, of the Equality Commission for Northern Ireland, because shared learning plays an important role in re-establishing bonds after a conflict.

“This long experience of separate education has been a lost opportunity for everyone,” McKinstry says.

But there are signs that long entrenched sectarian divisions seem to matter less for Northern Ireland’s young people. Born after the Troubles, young Protestants and Catholics tend to mix easily in pubs and concert halls.

Emily-Jane Hopton Brown, 18, a Protestant student at Omagh High School, was walking recently with two friends—a Catholic woman and a man from a mixed Catholic and Protestant home.

“It doesn’t matter that much,” Hopton Brown says of the sectarian feuds of the past. “We’re trying to move forward, to be more inclusive.”

But there are signs that long entrenched sectarian divisions seem to matter less for Northern Ireland’s young people. Born after the Troubles, young Protestants and Catholics tend to mix easily in pubs and concert halls.

Emily-Jane Hopton Brown, 18, a Protestant student at Omagh High School, was walking recently with two friends—a Catholic woman and a man from a mixed Catholic and Protestant home.

“It doesn’t matter that much,” Hopton Brown says of the sectarian feuds of the past. “We’re trying to move forward, to be more inclusive.”

With reporting by Mark Landler and Megan Specia of The New York Times.

With reporting by Mark Landler and Megan Specia of The New York Times.